"THE DIVE TO THE DEPTHS OF HELL!" "BRING ON" "PEAK OIL!" BY 2025-2030 WHEN "HOT STUFF" EXPLODES! FRACKING IS DRYING UP! INSANE MONOPOLY PROFITS! LESS MONEY FOR POOR & RENEWABLES! "ICE FREE ARCTIC!"="It Is THE END!"
"THE SECOND COMING" . . THEN . . "THE FINAL JUDGEMENT!" . . AS FORETOLD . .
. . BY . . "THE LORD GOD!" . . "JESUS CHRIST!" . . "MY PAPPA AND YOURS!" . .
. . FORETOLD IN . . "THE GOSPEL'S OF MATTHEW . . LUKE . . JOHN . . & . . MARK!" . .
. . FORETOLD IN THE . . "REVELATION!". . TO JOHN! . . AND . . DETAILED HERE IN . .
"THE FINAL TESTAMENT OF . . JESUS . . SARAYU . . MAMMA . . AND . . FATHER!"
. . TO . . "THE LOST AND BLESSED SOULS!" . . OF . . PLANET EVIL GREED!
IT WILL BE . . HELL ON EARTH . . NEVER TO HAVE OCCURRED BEFORE! OR AFTER! . .
. . COMBINE . . "THE WORLD WITHOUT OIL!" . . "SIX DEGREES COULD CHANGE THE WORLD!"
. . "EARTH UNDER WATER!" . . "COMPLETELY ICE FREE ARCTIC!" . . AND . .
. . "THE ARCTIC DEATH SPIRAL . . UNLEASHES . . THE METHANE TIME BOMB!"
. . "HOT STUFF!" . . "THE SIBERIAN METHANE MONSTER!" . . WHICH WILL . .
. . RAPIDLY BURN UP . . PLANET EVIL GREED! . . DESTROYING GROWING REGIONS!
. . WHILE . . "MELTING THE BIG SNOW CONE!" . . CAUSING SEA LEVELS TO RISE!
. . DESTROYING 440 NUCLEAR REACTORS GLOBALLY! THE SCIENTIFIC EVIDENCE OF . .
"CHRIST'S MOST PROFOUND PROPHECIES!" . . WHEN . . "THE ARCTIC IS ICE FREE!"
. . "IT WILL BE AS IN THE TIME OF NOAH!" . . "ONE DAY OK!" . . "THE NEXT DAY HELL!"
IF IT WERE NOT FOR THE FACT THAT I WILL COME DOWN TO TAKE HOME . . "THE ELECT!"
. . THEY WOULD SUFFER HELL LIKE NEVER BEFORE! OR EVER AGAIN! . .
CHRIST'S MOST PROFOUND PROPHECIES FULFILLED! INCLUDING . .
"THE FINAL TESTAMENT OF JESUS, SARAYU, MAMMA AND FATHER!" . . WILL BE TOLD . .
. . THROUGHOUT OUT THE WORLD! . . "THIS IS" . .
"THE FINAL TESTAMENT . . OF . . JESUS . . SARAYU . . MAMMA . . AND . . FATHER GOD!"
"BECOME ONE OF . . THE ELECT!" . . DO AS . . "MY SOUL SISTER SINGS SO SPIRITUALLY!"
. . ASK GOD TO . . "HELP YOU TO LOVE OTHERS!" . . "AS GOD LOVES YOU!" . . NOW!
"PEAK OIL" . . NOT SOMETHING YOU HAVE PROBABLY HEARD OF RECENTLY! . .
. . BUT JUST TO MAKE SURE YOU KNOW WHY . . "THANK GOD!" . . "It Is THE END!"
THIS POST ON . . "PEAK OIL!" . . WHICH SHOULD PEAK BY 2025-2035! SHOULD HELP!
. . THE ONLY THING I HAVE CHANGED FROM THE MARCH 2016 POST BELOW ON . .
. . "PEAK OIL AND GAS" IS THAT . . "TIGHT OIL AND GAS" HAVE ADDED TO RESERVES.
. . DELAYING . . "PEAK OIL & GAS" . . BY ROUGHLY A DECADE OR SO! ALTHOUGH MY . .
. . MARCH 2016 FORECAST WAS FOR . . "PEAK OIL" . . BY 2030-2040! WHICH IS STILL . .
. . "MOST-LIKELY!" I BELIEVE NOW THAT . . "PEAK OIL" . . MAY OCCUR BY 2025! THE MAIN
. . ISSUE IS NOT WHERE . . "THEORETICALLY AVAILABLE PEAK OIL" . . IS! AS IT IS WHERE . .
"PEAK AVAILABLE SUPPLY" . . OF OIL & GAS . . DOES NOT MEET . . "PEAKING DEMAND!"
DEMAND IS LIKELY TO CONTINUE TO RISE SIGNIFICANTLY IN CHANA . . WHERE . .
. . RISING LEVELS OF INCOME . . COMBINED . . WITH THE NEW . . 3 CHILD POLICY!
. . MAKING . . "THE PEAK DEMAND" . . FOR OIL POTENTIALLY RISING! CONTRARY TO . .
. . THE BP ARTICLE BELOW ARGUING . . "PEAK DEMAND FOR OIL" . . MAY HAVE OCCURRED!
. . ADD . . "PUTIN'S WAR OIL" . . AND . . RISING DEMAND DUE TO A GLOBAL COLLAPSE!
. . BROUGHT ON BY . . "APOCALYPTIC METHANE RELEASE!" MAY MIMMIC . . "PEAK OIL!"
DUE TO THESE SUPPLY ISSUES! . . FRAGMENTED SUPPLY! WAR SUPPLY DISRUPTIONS!
DUE TO RISING DEMAND BY CHINA! . . PUTIN'S WWIII. . & . . "A GLOBAL POLICE STATE!"
DUE TO MASSIVE INCREASES IN FOSSIL FUELS NEEDED IN A . . WORLD BURNING UP!
"HOT STUFF" . . "THE SIBERIAN METHANE MONSTER!" . . WHEN . . "ICE FREE ARCTIC!"
"THE WORLD WITHOUT OIL" . . ALONE . . WILL BE . . "HELL BEYOND HELL ON EARTH!"
. . THE BIG QUESTION . . THAT WE SHALL ALL SEE BY ROUGHLY . . 2025-2027!
WHEN WILL . . "COMPLETELY ICE FREE ARCTIC" . . UNLEASH . . "HOT STUFF!" . .
. . "THE SIBERIAN METHANE MONSTER!" . . MASSIVE METHANE RELEASE! AND . .
. . WILL THIS BE AS . . "APOCALYPTIC EVENT" . . AS GUY, SAM, MYSELF & OTHERS THINK?
CRITICAL NOTE: UNLIKE THE . . "TRADITIONAL BELL SHAPED CURVE!" . . DEPICTED AS . .
. . "THE PEAK OIL CURVE!" . . I HAVE ARGUED SINCE MY SPRING 2016 GENDER SOCIETY . .
. . DISCUSSION BELOW. THAT THE PEAK WILL LOOK MORE LIKE A "SCEWED CURVE!"
. . THE TRADITIONAL . . "BELL SHAPED CURVE" . . IS DEPICTED AS LESS EXTREME SLOPED!
DUE TO . . "TECHNOLOGY" . . ALLOWING MORE EFFECTIVE RECOVERY OF OIL RESERVES!
. . MY DEPICTION IS AN . . "EXTREME SKEWED DROP" . . LIKE DEPICTED ABOVE!
IN FACT . . "EXTRACTION TECHNOLOGY" . . HAS . . "PUSHED THE NORMAL DISTRIBUTION!"
. . TO . . "THE SKEWED DISTRIBUTION!" . . AS THE WORLD IS GREAT AT . . "SUCKING OUT!"
. . "WHAT OIL, GAS, URANIUM, RARE EARTH MINERALS, ETC" . . REMAIN . . RAPIDLY!
THEN . . "ALL GONE RAPIDLY!" "THE WORLD WITHOUT OIL GAS URANIUM REM ETC!" . .
. . ON . . "TRUMPET COCAINE!" . . "THE RAPID EXTINCTION OF DELETABLE RESOURCES!"
SUPPLY MAY CONTINUE TO RISE. HOWEVER THESE OTHER VARIABLES: PUTIN'S WAR . .
. . AND A GLOBAL COLLAPSE, DUE TO MASSIVE METHANE RELEASES! MAY . .
. . CAUSE MASSIVE . . SUPPLY RELATED ISSUES . . THAT . . "MIMMIC" . . THEREFORE . .
. . "BRING ON" . . "PEAK OIL!" . . AND THIS . . "STEP DROP IN SUPPLY!" BY 2025 TO 2035!
THINK OF IT THIS WAY! WITHOUT . . PUTIN'S WAR . . BURNING UP OIL & GAS RAPIDLY!
. . PLUS . . MAKING . . RUSSIA . . #1 IN GAS RESERVES . . #8 IN OIL RESERVES! . .
. . ONLY A . . "SUPPLY SOURCE" . . FOR . . THE "XI / VLAD / MOGELIVICH TATERSHIP!"
. . FACTORING IN THEIR ENORMOUS ISSUES SHARING THEIR "STRATEGIC ASSETS!"
. . RUSSIA . . OIL GAS AND RARE EARTH MINERALS, ETC. . AND A TOTAL SHIT ECONOMY!
. . CHINA . . MANUFACTURING & EVERYTHING ELSE! . . CHINA'S SAFE CITIES! ARE . .
. . "THE GLOBAL POLICE STATE AGENDA!" WHICH . . RUSSIA NEEDS TO CONTROL PEOPLE!
THE US HAS ONLY . . 5.3% OF THE WORLD'S GAS RESERVES! . . ONLY 2.1% OF OIL! OMG!
The United States ranks 1st in the world for oil consumption, accounting for about 20.3% of the world's total consumption of 97,103,871 barrels per day.
The United States ranks 1st in the world for natural gas consumption, accounting for about 20.5% of the world's total consumption of 132,290,211 MMcf.
TAKE A MOMENT TO THINK OF THESE STATS! . . REALLY PONDER THIS PROBLEM!
. . THE US HAS 5.3% OF THE WORLD'S OIL RESERVES! . . YET CONSUMES 20.3%!
. . THE US HAS ONLY 2.1% OF THE WORLD'S GAS RESERVES! . . YET CONSUMES 20.5%
THE US . . SATAN'S EMPIRE . . HAS BEEN ON A . . "TRUMPET COCAIN HIGH!" . .
. . DUE TO THE SIGNIFICANT EXTRACTION OF . . "TIGHT OIL AND GAS!"
AS I ARGUED IN MARCH 2016! SEE BELOW! INSTEAD OF EXPANDING RENEWABLES!
. . SATAN'S EMPIRE OF "RUTHLESS RICH OIL&WAR LORD SLAVE OWNING IMPERIALISTS!"
. . TRANSITIONING TO . . SOLAR AND WIND! . .THEY WILL LIKELY EXTRACT THE . .
. . "HARD FOSSIL FUELS." TAR SANDS, SHALE, AND COAL . . TO OIL! . .
"TIGHT OIL" . . IS A METHOD OF EXTRACTING THESE . . "HARD FOSSIL FUELS RESERVES!"
. . HOWEVER, AS THE ARTICLE ABOVE ARGUED! . . THERE MAY BE 1 TRILLION BARRELS
. . AS M. KING HUBBERT ESTIMATED IN US IN 1956! IN TIGHT OR HARD OIL RESERVES!
. . BUT WILL IT BE ECONOMICAL TO EXTRACT THESE RESERVES? IS IT EVEN NOW?
. . THE ARTICLES BELOW ON . . "NO WALL STREET MONEY" . . FOR . . "FRACKING!"
. . PROVIDE THE . . ECONOMIC AND PHYSICAL REALITIES . . OF WHAT HUBBERT SAW!
. . IN 1957! WHEN HE SAID . . THERE MAY BE 1 TRILLION BARRELS OF HARD OIL & GAS!
. . BUT ECONOMICALLY IT IS NOT CAPABLE OF BEING EXTRACTED! HE SAID THIS IN 1957!
JUST LIKE WE CAN'T ACCESS THE MASSIVE GAS RESERVES IN THE ARCTIC / SIBERIA!
. . BEFORE THESE MASSIVE GAS RESERVES ARE RELEASED! . . BURNING UP THE PLANET!
THE ONLY SOLUTIONS! "CAP SIBERIAN METHANE" AND "ENCASE NUCLEAR REACTORS!"
. . ALTHOUGH I DETAILED MANY STRATEGIES, PRIOR TO REALIZING, METHANE . .
. . "HOT STUFF" . . WILL BURN UP PLANET EVIL GREED! . . VERY RAPIDLY! I PROPOSED . .
. . SINCE I STARTED . . "GOD'S SITE!" ROUGHLY 2015/16. WHICH I HAVE SENT GLOBALLY!
JOE . . DO . . "THE SUMMIT TO SAVE OUR SPECIES!" . . NOW! OR . . "FRY WHEN YOU DIE!"
ALSO THIS IS DUE TO THE VERY RAPID EXTRACTION OF . . "TIGHT OIL & GAS RESERVES!"
. . HISTORICALLY . . 84% . . OF OIL AND GAS ARE EXTRACTED IN THE FIRST 3 YEARS!
. . AND ALREADY! . . WALL STREET MONEY REALIZES . . THAT WAS A QUICK . .
. . "SNORT!" OF "BLOWBAMA/TRUMPET FRACKING COCAINE!" NOW THE PARTY'S OVER!
ADD IN . . "COMPLETELY ICE FREE ARCTIC!" . . BY 2025-2027! . . RELEASING . .
. . "THE SIBERIAN METHANE MONSTER!" . . "HOT STUFF" . . MOST-LIKELY CAUSE . .
. . THE MASSIVE METHANE POOLS IN THE BARENTS & KARA SEAS! & YAMAL PENINSULA!
. . ALONG WITH . . GIGATONS FROM THE EAST SIBERIAN ARCTIC SHELF! . .
. . INCLUDING GIGATONS FROM ALL AROUND THE ARCTIC CIRCLE! . . BURNIG UP . .
. . THE WORLD'S FOOD GROWING REGIONS . . AND . . MELTING . . ANTARCTICA! . .
HYPER-EXPONENTIALLY . . TO . . HYPERBOLIC . . RISES IN GLOBAL TEMPS! . .
. . RAPIDLY BURNS UP THE WORLD'S FOOD GROWING REGIONS! . . JUST WHEN . .
. . "THE WORLD IS RUNNING OUT OF OIL GAS URANIUM REM, ETC!" . . BY . . 2025 TO 2030!
CAUSING . . "THE BIG SNOW CONE!" . . ANTARCTICA! . . BOTH WEST AND EAST! . .
. . TO MELT . . HYPER-EXPONENTIALLY! . . VERY RAPIDLY! WHICH WE LEARNED . .
. . IN 2007 . . WHEN . . ANDRILL . . DOCUMENTED . . SAME CARBON . . 2-3 C HIGHER TEMPS
. . CAUSED BOTH WEST AND MOST OF EAST ANTARCTICA TO MELT! . . (LAST 13 M)
CAUSING . . 60' TO 75' OF SEA LEVEL RISE! . . BY . . 2027! . . COUPLED WITH . .
. . "THE MONSTER SUPER STORMS" . . AND . . "SUPER STORM SURGE!" . .
. . KABOOOOOM! . . THE WORLD'S 440 PLUS NUCLEAR REACTORS! . . ALONG WITH
. . MANY OF THE WORLD'S 12,700 NUCLEAR WEAPONS! . . COMBINED WITH . .
HUNDREDS TO MANY THOUSANDS OF GIGATONS OF SIBERIAN METHANE! . . "HOT STUFF!"
"VENUS" . . AIN'T GOT NOTHING OVER YOU . . "HOT STUFF!" . . VAPORIZED PLANET GREED!
RAPIDLY RADIOACTIVE AND ACIDIC OCEANS AND RAINS! . . INSURING . . BY 2030-40!
"THANK GOD!" . . "It Is THE END!" . . OF . . "RUTHLESS RULE BY THE EVIL RICH!"
"TIME FOR . . GOD'S LOVE . . TO . . BLESS THE GOOD SOULS!" . . "THOSE CHOOSING GOD!"
PLEASE SEE MY PRIOR POSTS:
IPCC ISSUES MORE NO-METHANE NON-SCIENCE! JUST MORE BS FOR THE BILLIONAIRE FAU LIBERALS! "COMPLETELY ICE FREE ARCTIC" EXPLODES SIBERIAN METHANE! CAUSING HYPER-EXPONENTIAL METHANE RELEASE! "HOT STUFF!" ARISES TO INSURE "It Is THE END!"
THE MOST IMPORTANT POST: WELCOME TO "THE END OF THE WORLD!" "THANK GOD!" "It Is THE END!" PUTIN STARTS WWIII! 1 "THE FINAL JUDGEMENT" BY 2027! DURING "THE SECOND COMING!" MOST BLESSED - "NORDIC MODEL SUPPORTERS!" THE MOST DAMNED "THE EVIL RICH & RIGHT WING ANTI-CHRISTIANS!"
"PUTIN'S WWIII BURNS UP PLANET EVIL GREED FAST!" YEAH! "VLAD/TRUMP 2024!" & "MAKE AMERICA RUSSIA AGAIN!" INSTEAD OF UKRAINE WAR! SIBERIAN METHANE IS EXPLODING! "MAKE AMERICA DENMARK NOW!" NOW! GO HOME "CHOOSING GOD!" "NOT MONEY!" 100% RENEWABLE!
RIGGED! KOCHS RIGGED COVID & HEALTHCARE! EXPLODES COVID! "ICE FREE ARCTIC!" UNLEASHES "HOT STUFF" "GIGATONS OF METHANE!" CAUSED BY STRONG EL NINO EARTHQUAKES AMOC COLLAPSE REDUCED ALBEDO BY 2023-2027! ADD "LATENT HEAT OF FUSION!" = MELTING OF ANTARCTICA
"CHRIST'S MOST PROFOUND PROPHECY!" WHEN "THE ARCTIC IS ICE FREE!" "STRONG EL NINO COLLAPSE OF THE AMOC & THE 2ND COMING!" "BECOME ONE II!" TRANS HELL! PASSIONATELY LOVE GOD! NOT MONEY! "LOVE OTHERS WITH GOD'S LOVE!" GIVE YOUR WEALTH & LIFE TO GOD!
JOE DO "THE SUMMIT TO SAVE OUR SPECIES!" AND "ONE LOVE!" OR FRY WHEN YOU DIE! METHANE EXPLODES! IPCC ISSUES NO METHANE NON-SCIENCE! ARCTIC ICE BY GEOENGINEERING!? AMOC COLLAPSE EXPLODES GULF TEMPS! SUPER STORMS DESTROY GULF BY 25! It Is the end!
REMEMBERING - CHENEY BUSH STOLE B-TRILLIONS DOING 9/11! A NEWS WOMAN CALLED BLD 7 DOWN LIVE ON TV! ROCKEFELLER TOLD RUSSO 9/11 WOULD HAPPEN 11 MONTHS BEFORE AND ROCKEFELLER TOLD RUSSO "SATAN'S MAFIA GLOBAL DEPOPULATION AND POLICE STATE AGENDA!" NO VACCINES FOR POOR COUNTRIES IS SATAN'S MAFIA DEPOPULATION AGENDA! It Is THE END! ENJOY HELL!
Oil Frackers Brace for End of the U.S. Shale Boom
Limited inventory leaves the industry with little choice but to hold back growth, even amid high oil prices
By Collin Eaton
Feb. 3, 2022 9:53 am ET
The end of the boom is in sight for America’s fracking companies.
Less than 3½ years after the shale revolution made the U.S. the world’s largest oil producer, companies in the oil fields of Texas, New Mexico and North Dakota have tapped many of their best wells.
NOTE: THE GRAPH ABOVE SHOWS IT TOOK ONLY 3 YEARS TO GET 84% OF US GAS OUT!
If the largest shale drillers kept their output roughly flat, as they have during the pandemic, many could continue drilling profitable wells for a decade or two, according to a Wall Street Journal review of inventory data and analyses. If they boosted production 30% a year—the pre-pandemic growth rate in the Permian Basin, the country’s biggest oil field—they would run out of prime drilling locations in just a few years.
Shale companies once drilled rapidly in pursuit of breakneck growth. Now the industry has little choice but to keep running in place. Many are holding back on increasing production, despite the highest oil prices in years and requests from the White House that they drill more.
The limited inventory suggests that the era in which U.S. shale companies could quickly flood the world with oil is receding, and that market power is shifting back to other producers, many overseas. Some investors and energy executives said concerns about inventory likely motivated a recent spate of acquisitions and will lead to more consolidation.
Some companies say concerns about inventories haven’t factored into their decisions to keep output roughly flat. For several years before the pandemic, frustrated investors had pressured companies to slow production growth and return cash to shareholders rather than pump it back into drilling. Companies have promised to limit spending, though some executives recently said high prices signal a need for them to expand again this year.
Pioneer Natural Resources Co. , the largest oil producer in the Permian Basin of West Texas and New Mexico, raised its oil production between 19% and 27% a year in shale’s peak years. Now, Pioneer is planning to increase output only 5% a year or lower, for the long term.
Scott Sheffield, chief executive of Pioneer, said the combination of investor pressure and limited well inventory means he cannot drill as he once did. “You just can’t keep growing 15% to 20% a year,” he said. “You’ll drill up your inventories. Even the good companies.”
Pioneer bought two smaller drillers last year, Parsley Energy Inc. and DoublePoint Energy, in deals valued at almost $11 billion combined. Mr. Sheffield said that with those acquisitions, his company has about 15 to 20 years left of inventory. Pioneer’s pool of potential drilling locations would last only about eight years at a 15% to 20% growth rate, he said.
While privately held oil producers have increased their output in the Permian this past year, Mr. Sheffield warned even the largest of those would drill through their inventory rapidly if they kept it up.
Mr. Sheffield said he expects U.S. oil production to grow around 2% to 3% a year, even if oil trades from $70 to $100 a barrel. U.S. oil prices settled at $88.26 a barrel Wednesday.
Many drillers say they will never return to pre-pandemic production growth levels of up to 30% a year, in part due to rising costs for raw materials and labor, a lack of available financing and the enormous number of new wells it would require.
Five of the largest shale companies— EOG Resources Inc., Devon Energy Corp. , Diamondback Energy Inc., Continental Resources Inc. and Marathon Oil Corp. —all have about a decade or more of profitable well sites at their current drilling pace, according to the Journal’s review.
They would exhaust that inventory within about six years if they grew output 15% a year, according to analytics firm FLOW Partners LLC, which provided one of the analyses the Journal reviewed.
SIX YEARS OF SHALE GAS AT 15% GROWTH RATE = "BRING ON" "PEAK OIL!" . .
. . JUST WHEN . . "HOT STUFF" . . "THE SIBERIAN METHANE MONSTER!" . .
. . BURNS UP . . "PLANET EVIL GREED!"
"THANK GOD!" . . "It Is THEN END!" OF "THE EVIL RICH!"
U.S. oil production
U.S. oil production, now at about 11.5 million barrels a day, is still well below its high in early 2020 of about 13 million barrels a day. The Energy Information Administration expects U.S. production to grow about 5.4% through the end of 2022.
Big shale companies already have to drill hundreds of wells each year just to keep production flat. Shale wells produce prodigiously early on, but their production declines rapidly. The Journal reported in 2019 that thousands of shale wells were pumping less oil and gas than companies had forecast. Many have since marked down how many drilling locations they have left.
Some shale companies will eventually have to start spending money to explore for new hot spots, executives and investors said, and even then, those efforts are likely to add only incremental inventory. Few are currently doing so.
The Real Reason Big Oil Won’t Save the U.S. from High Gas Prices
March 10, 2022
After years of losses prompted "capital discipline", oil companies are returning soaring profits to investors, not spending it on riskier new drilling projects.
As gas prices spike for American drivers, fossil fuel boosters have slammed President Joe Biden for policies they say constrain U.S. energy production. “We have the reserves here and this is preventable,” Rep. Garret Graves of Louisiana, the ranking Republican on the House Select Committee on Climate Crisis, told reporters in Washington Tuesday. “No leasing or energy production—that’s not an energy policy.”
But to understand why the industry really isn’t ramping up production, it helps to hear what its leaders are telling each other off camera. In Houston this week, where oil and gas executives are gathered for the industry’s most influential annual conference, CERAWeek by S&P Global, industry insiders are having a very different conversation than the one broadcast on cable TV. The primary thing holding back more production isn’t government policies, they say. It’s money.
Getting more oil flowing requires capital and comes with high risks in a volatile oil market. With steep losses in recent memory, the investors who control the purse strings are keeping the companies on a tight leash. “Ultimately, companies have to make a decision to risk their capital… nobody knows how this episode is going to play out,” Mark Viviano, managing partner at Kimmeridge, a private equity firm focused on oil and gas, told a packed conference room on March 8. “I don’t think it’s realistic to think there’s going to be a collective industry response to this crisis. Unfortunately, it’s just not the way the industry is.”
In theory, that’s not how the market is supposed to work. Typically, a steep rise in oil prices would drive a steep uptick in drilling, but this time around may be different. After the industry suffered huge losses in the years leading up to the COVID-19 pandemic, investors continue to prioritize safe profits. And even though the Biden administration has enacted few climate regulations restricting oil and gas, industry leaders say they continue to feel the climate pressure from investors.
The oil industry adopted its timid investment approach over time. For decades, the industry and those who followed it considered oil to be a finite resource that would eventually run out. And, with that in mind, industry leaders looked desperately for anywhere they might be able to find so-called black gold.
A little less than 15 years ago, the advent and widespread deployment of hydraulic fracturing, commonly referred to as fracking, changed the dynamics. Fracking dramatically expanded the areas ripe for production at a relatively low cost, so oil companies responded by producing more oil—a lot more. In fact, they produced so much of it that by 2014 supply vastly outstripped demand and, as a result, prices began to fall rapidly. Between June 2014 and July 2016, the U.S. benchmark price of a barrel of oil declined from more than $100 dollars to around $30.
THE MONOPOLIZATION OF EVERYTHING EVERYWHERE! . . ENJOY HELL YOU EVIL BEASTS!
At those prices, companies focused on fracking quickly lost vast sums of money. Some went bankrupt. Others were eaten up by much larger oil majors, which were also losing money. All of this contributed to oil and gas ranking as the worst performing sector on the S&P 500 stock index over the past decade.
FIRST . . BANKRUPT YOUR COMPETITORS! . . DRIVE OUT THE COMPETITION!
Upset at their returns, investors started demanding changes, imposing what is widely referred to as “capital discipline.” Instead of financing drilling anywhere and everywhere, investors told oil companies to focus on their most profitable oil projects and shelve the others. The COVID-19 pandemic, and the resulting lockdown that briefly sent oil prices negative, confirmed the wisdom of that strategy.
THEN DRIVE PRICES UP! "ALL . . FOR THE RUTHLESS RICH!" "RAPE . . THE REST!"
Jeff Ritenour, Chief Financial Officer at Devon Energy, an Oklahoma City-based oil and gas company, described at CERAWeek a “fundamental shift” that his business made to use profits to pay down debt, provide a reliable dividend to shareholders and buy back shares. In order to do that, the company has maintained a “low reinvestment ratio”—meaning it limits its investment in new production. Similar approaches have played out at firms across the industry and made “capital discipline” industry orthodoxy.
The Russian invasion of Ukraine and the subsequent moves targeting the country’s energy exports have created the biggest challenge yet to that way of thinking. As oil prices trade well above $100, many oil executives are keen to produce more oil. In the Permian Basin, the West Texas oil field behind the fracking boom, producers can profitably drill a new well if the U.S. is benchmark is around $50 per barrel, according to data from the Dallas Fed. That’s a lot of potential profit if prices stay high.
But investors aren’t convinced that drilling is the best best this time around. The most obvious reason for staying the course is that high prices are good for investors. Oil companies are extremely profitable right now and Wall Street firms generally prefer that the companies return those profits to investors—either through dividends or stock buybacks—rather than spend it on new projects that may not be profitable down the road. As oil prices rise, the profits that can be returned to investors will only grow. If they fall, the companies have sufficient padding to avoid steep losses.
And no one knows how long the current crisis will last or what its impact on the global economy will be. A sustained war in Ukraine would mean sustained high prices. That suggests it would be good to produce more. But a long-lasting war could also drive a global recession, reducing demand for oil. The volatility is hard for the industry to plan around. “You can’t deliver consistent market leading returns, if you’re yanking around activity from month to month,” said Ritenour.
In Washington and in conservative media, Republicans are quick to place the blame on climate policy. It’s certainly true that President Biden put the oil and gas industry on notice when he took over in Washington last year. But the administration hasn’t succeeded in enacting any stringent regulations and the policies that are under active consideration largely offer carrots for clean energy rather than actively demonizing fossil fuels. “There is nothing that the administration is doing to restrict,” Amos Hochstein, the State Department’s point person for energy security, told CERWeek conference goers on March 8.
Out of the public spotlight, oil and gas executives largely point the finger at investors, not government as their primary source of climate pressure. Trillions of dollars have flowed into ESG funds, short for environmental, social and governance, and investors have become skeptical of the industry’s long-term future in the face of climate change.
For many investors, the opportunity for a quick buck in the space isn’t worth it. “So far, and I am on the frontlines, I see this every day, there is no interest to go in this space,” Jeffrey Currie, the global head of commodities research at Goldman Sachs, told the crowd on March 8 as he shared the stage with the head of OPEC.
It’s reminder of the degree to which climate change has reshaped the industry: even amid a land war in Europe and soaring oil prices, the industry needs to respond to calls for reduced emissions. “In the world of money, everyone lives on bended knee,” Brian Thomas, a managing director at Prudential Private Capital, told a crowd. “The industry is beginning to kind of morph its behavior to reflect the concerns of its investor base, right or wrong.”
NOTHING LIKE WAR! TO . . BRING ON . . Peak Oil! is the moment at which extraction of petroleum reaches a rate greater than that at any time in the past and starts to permanently decrease. It is related to the distinct concept of oil depletion; while global petroleum reserves are finite, the limiting factor is not whether the oil exists but whether it can be extracted economically at a given price. A secular decline in oil extraction could be caused both by depletion of accessible reserves and by reductions in demand that reduce the price relative to the cost of extraction, as might be induced to reduce carbon emissions.
Numerous predictions of the timing of peak oil have been made over the past century before being falsified by subsequent growth in the rate of petroleum extraction. M. King Hubbert is often credited with introducing the notion in a 1956 paper which presented a formal theory and predicted U.S. extraction to peak between 1965 and 1971. Hubbert's original predictions for world peak oil production proved premature and, as of 2021, forecasts of the year of peak oil range from 2019 to 2040. These predictions are dependent on future economic trends, technological developments, and efforts by societies and governments to moderate climate change.
Predictions of future oil production made in 2007 and 2009 stated either that the peak had already occurred, that oil production was on the cusp of the peak, or that it would occur soon. A decade later world oil production rose to hit a new high in 2018, as developments in extraction technology enabled an expansion of U.S. tight oil production. Following a collapse in oil demand at the outset of the COVID-19 pandemic and a price war between Saudi Arabia and Russia, a number of organizations have put forward predictions of a peak in the next 10 to 15 years.
Peak gas is the year in which the maximum global natural gas (fossil gas) production rate will be reached, after which the rate of production will enter its terminal decline. Although demand is peaking in the United States and Europe, it continues to rise globally due to consumers in Asia, especially China. Natural gas is a fossil fuel formed from plant matter over the course of millions of years. Natural gas derived from fossil fuels is a non-renewable energy source, however methane can be renewable in other forms such as biogas. Peak coal was in 2013, and peak oil is forecast to occur before peak gas. One forecast is for natural gas demand to peak in 2035.
The concept of peak gas follows from Hubbert peak theory, which is most commonly associated with peak oil. Hubbert saw gas, coal and oil as natural resources, each of which would peak in production and eventually run out for a region, a country, or the world.
Hubbert’s original peak theory predicts that natural gas will experience three equally spaced events: first, the rate of discoveries will peak, then X years later reserves will peak, and finally X years after peak reserves, gas production will peak at the same rate as the previous peak of discoveries. For the United States, for instance, Hubbert projected that the natural gas discovery rate was peaking in 1962 at about 570 billion cubic metres (20 trillion cubic feet) per year. From his curves, he predicted that proved reserves would peak eight years later, in 1970, and that production would peak after another eight years, in 1978, at 570 billion cubic metres (20 trillion cubic feet) per year, about equal to the rate of peak discoveries.
Of the three peaks, Hubbert found the peak in discoveries most difficult to define, because of large year-to-year scatter, and the phenomenon of “reserve growth.” Initial estimates of a discovery are usually much lower than ultimate recovery, especially if the conservative estimate of proven reserves is the measure. As the discovery is drilled out, estimates rise. Sometimes estimates of recoverable oil and gas in a discovery continue to rise for many years after the discovery. To find the peak in discoveries, Hubbert backdated reserve growth to the date of field discovery.
According to David L. Goodstein, the worldwide rate of discovery peaked around 1960 and has been declining ever since. Exxon Mobil Vice President, Harry J. Longwell places the peak of global gas discovery around 1970 and has observed a sharp decline in natural gas discovery rates since then. The rate of discovery has fallen below the rate of consumption in 1980. The gap has been widening ever since. Declining gas discovery rates foreshadow future production decline rates because gas production can only follow gas discoveries.
Despite the reported fall in new-field discoveries, world proved reserves of natural gas have continued to grow, from 19 billion cubic meters (bcm) in 1960, 45 bcm in 1970 and 84 bcm in 1980, to a record high 200 bcm in 2012. A researcher for the US Energy Information Administration pointed out that after the first wave of discoveries in an area, most oil and natural gas reserve growth comes not from discoveries of new fields, but from extensions and additional gas found within existing fields.
Dr. Anthony Hayward CCMI, chief executive of BP stated in October 2009 that proven natural gas reserves around the world have risen to 190 cubic kilometres (1.2 trillion barrels) of oil equivalent, enough for 60 years' supply if consumption is non-increasing, and that gas reserves are trending upward. A similar situation exists with oil reserves in that they have increased despite the actual declines of worldwide discoveries for decades and despite increases in consumption.
BP’s former Chief Petroleum Engineer Jeremy Gilbert stated in 2007 that the growth in oil reserves "results largely from distortions created by the..reporting rules of the US Securities and Exchange Commission" that force companies to be overly conservative in their calculation of reserves, but that "even this illusory growth is unlikely to last," because fewer oil reserves are coming under the control of SEC-regulated companies. However, since Gilbert's statement, proven reserves of both oil and gas have continued to rise, proven oil reserves increasing 23%, from 1.20 trillion barrels in 2007, to 1.48 trillion barrels in 2012.
Peak uranium is the point in time that the maximum global uranium production rate is reached. After that peak, according to Hubbert peak theory, the rate of production enters a terminal decline. While uranium is used in nuclear weapons, its primary use is for energy generation via nuclear fission of the uranium-235 isotope in a nuclear power reactor. Each kilogram of uranium-235 fissioned releases the energy equivalent of millions of times its mass in chemical reactants, as much energy as 2700 tons of coal, but uranium-235 accounts for only 0.7% of the mass of natural uranium. While Uranium-235 can be "bred" from 234U, a natural decay product of 238U present at 55 ppm in all natural uranium samples, Uranium-235 is ultimately a finite non-renewable resource.
Due to the currently low price of uranium, the majority of commercial light water reactors operate on a "once through fuel cycle" which leaves virtually all the energy contained in the original 238U - which makes up over 99% of natural uranium - unused. Nuclear reprocessing is a technology currently used at industrial scale in France, Russia and Japan, which can recover part of that energy by producing MOX fuel or Remix Fuel for use in conventional power generating light water reactors. However, at current uranium prices, this is widely deemed uneconomical if only the "input" side is considered.
Advances in breeder reactor technology could allow the current reserves of uranium to provide power for humanity for billions of years, thus making nuclear power a sustainable energy. However, in 2010 the International Panel on Fissile Materials said "After six decades and the expenditure of the equivalent of tens of billions of dollars, the promise of breeder reactors remains largely unfulfilled and efforts to commercialize them have been steadily cut back in most countries." But in 2016, the Russian BN-800 fast-neutron breeder reactor started producing commercially at full power (800 MWe), joining the previous BN-600. As of 2020, the Chinese CFR-600 is under construction after the success of the China Experimental Fast Reactor, based on the BN-800. These reactors are currently generating mostly electricity rather than new fuel because the abundance and low price of mined and reprocessed uranium oxide makes breeding uneconomical, but they can switch to breed new fuel and close the cycle as needed.
The CANDU reactor which was designed to be fueled with natural uranium is capable of using spent fuel from Light Water Reactors as fuel, since it contains more fissile material than natural uranium. Research into "DUPIC" - direct use of PWR spent fuel in CANDU type reactors - is ongoing and could increase the usability of fuel without the need for reprocessing.
M. King Hubbert created his peak theory in 1956 for a variety of finite resources such as coal, oil, and natural gas. He and others since have argued that if the nuclear fuel cycle can be closed, uranium could become equivalent to renewable energy sources as concerns its availability. Breeding and nuclear reprocessing potentially would allow the extraction of the largest amount of energy from natural uranium. However, only a small amount of uranium is currently being bred into plutonium and only a small amount of fissile uranium and plutonium is being recovered from nuclear waste worldwide. Furthermore, the technologies to eliminate the waste in the nuclear fuel cycle do not yet exist. Since the nuclear fuel cycle is effectively not closed, Hubbert peak theorymay be applicable.
Pessimistic predictions of future high-grade uranium production operate on the thesis that either the peak has already occurred in the 1980s or that a second peak may occur sometime around 2035.
As of 2017, identified uranium reserves recoverable at US$130/kg were 6.14 million tons (compared to 5.72 million tons in 2015). At the rate of consumption in 2017, these reserves are sufficient for slightly over 130 years of supply. The identified reserves as of 2017 recoverable at US$260/kg are 7.99 million tons (compared to 7.64 million tons in 2015).
Optimistic predictions of nuclear fuel supply are based upon one of three possible scenarios. Neither is currently commercially viable as more than 80% of the World's reactors are Light Water Reactors (LWRs):
If these predictions became reality, it would have the potential to increase the supply of nuclear fuel significantly. Currently, despite decades of research, there are no commercially practical thorium reactors in operation. Optimistic predictions claim that the supply is far more than demand and do not predict peak uranium.
OIL Reserves by Country Clickie for source materials
# Country Oil Reserves (barrels) in 2016 World Share
1. Venezuela 299,953,000,000 18.2%
2. Saudi Arabia. 266,578,000,000 16.2%
3. Canada 170,863,000,000 10.4%
4 Iran 157,530,000,000 9.5%
5. Iraq 143,069,000,000 8.7%
6. Kuwait 101,500,000,000 6.1%
7 United Arab Emirates 97,800,000,000 5.9%
8 Russia 80,000,000,000 4.8%
9 Libya 48,363,000,000 2.9%
10 Nigeria 37,070,000,000 2.2%
11 United States 35,230,000,000 2.1%
NATURAL GAS Reserves by Country
#Country Gas Reserves % OF WORLD RESERVES (MMcf)World
1 Russia 1,688,228,000 24.3%
2 Iran 1,201,382,000. 17.3%
3 Qatar 871,585,000 12.5%
4 United States. 368,704,000 5.3%
5 Saudi Arabia 294,205,000 4.2%
6 Turkmenistan 265,000,000 3.8%
7 United Arab Emirates 215,098,000 3.1%
8 Venezuela 197,087,000 2.8%
9 Nigeria 180,490,000 2.6%
10 China 163,959,000 2.4%
Largest Uranium Reserves In The World
Rank Country Uranium Reserve (in 1000 metric tons)
1 Kazakhstan 304
2. Canada 275
3. South Africa 168
4 Brazil 156
5. China 102
6 Mongolia 50
7 Ukraine 41
8 Tanzania 38
9 Uzbekistan 37
10 Russia 25
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Peak Oil Never Went Away
NOV 16, 2020
Do you remember peak oil? It was all the rage a decade ago. Now, almost no one is talking about it. The funny thing is, the problem never went away. If anything, it’s gotten worse.
In this post, I take a deep dive into peak oil. I show you that the peak in the production of conventional crude oil isn’t some distant prospect. It’s already happened. What’s more, the model that correctly predicted this peak suggests that conventional oil production is about to collapse.
Yes, talk of peak oil went away. But the problem didn’t.
Peak oil — A brief history
If you use an exhaustible resource, you will eventually run out. This fact is so obvious that everyone understands it … at least in principle. But in practice, humans are shockingly bad at predicting resource exhaustion. Why? The reason, I believe, is that we don’t understand things that are big.
Here’s an example. Imagine you’re stuck on a desert island with a one-year supply of food. What would you do? You’d probably ration the food so it lasted as long as possible. Now imagine that you had 100-year’s worth of food? Now what would you do? To hell with rationing … you’d probably gorge yourself without worry. This change in behavior is important. Like the 1-year stock, the 100-year stock of food is still exhaustible. But it’s so large that it seems infinite. And so you behave like the resource is actually infinite.
When this behavior plays out in the real world, the results are always the same. We exhaust a seemingly inexhaustible resource — and we do so sooner than we expect. Here are a few examples. The bison of North American were once so plentiful that they seemed infinite. Yet by the end of the 19th century, only a few hundred were left. The passenger pigeon once flocked in numbers that darkened the sky. And so we harvested them by the train car … until they went extinct. Whales seemed an inexhaustible source of fuel oil. But soon their numbers were decimated. I could go on …
Luckily, the switch to fossil fuels saved whales from extinction. Still, we’re doing the same thing with fossil fuels as we did with whales — treating them as though they were infinite. The difference, though, is that the stock of fossil fuels is vastly larger than any fuel stock we’ve used before. That makes perceiving its finite nature even harder.
To give you a sense of the size of fossil fuel reserves, Figure 1 compares the cumulative US production of crude oil to the cumulative US production of whale oil. Here’s how to read the plot. Pick a year on the horizontal axis. The value on the vertical axis indicates the amount of the resource harvested up to that year. By 1880, for instance, the US had harvested about 0.05 EJ of whale oil. In the same year, it had already harvested about 10 EJ of crude oil. (Note that the vertical axis uses a log scale, so each tick mark indicates a factor of 10.) By 1880, whale-oil production had mostly stopped. But crude-oil production kept growing. Today, the US has harvested about 20,000 times more crude oil than whale oil.
Figure 1: The cumulative production of whale oil and crude oil in the United States. The vertical axis shows the cumulative production of energy up to the respective year (horizontal axis). So far, the total US production of crude oil dwarfs whale-oil production by a factor of about 20,000. [Sources and methods]
The immensity of this crude oil reserve is hard to fathom. Think of all the whales ever slaughtered. Put them in a pile … and then make it 20,000 times bigger. That’s the magnitude of the US stock of crude oil. It’s immense. But it’s not infinite.
In fact, the finite nature of US crude oil reserves is visible in Figure 1. When we plot cumulative production on a log scale, resource exhaustion appears as an f-curve. When the resource is first harvested, cumulative production grows rapidly. On the f-curve, this rapid harvest appears as a steep slope. From day one, though, the production growth rate actually declines. This gives rise to the upper part of the f-curve. Growth slows and eventually plateaus.
The f-curve shape is caused by a simple principle: when you harvest an exhaustible resource, you exploit the easy pickings first. Initial growth is therefore fast. But as you move on to resources that are harder to exploit, growth slows. Today, cumulative crude oil production is approaching a plateau similar to that reached by whale oil in the 1880s. It’s a foreshadow of resource exhaustion.
Despite the ominous trend, the scale of crude oil reserves misleads us. And so most people forget that these reserves are finite. Fortunately, not everyone is fooled. Back in 1956, US oil production was exploding. But the geologist M. King Hubbert was worried about a different trend. Yes, oil production was growing. But oil discovery was not. By 1956, the rate of US oil discovery was in steep decline. This fact led Hubbert to make a startling prediction: US oil production would soon peak.
The peak would come, Hubbert predicted, around 1970. And that’s exactly what happened. As Figure 2 shows, US oil production peaked in 1970 and then began to decline. True, Hubbert’s prediction wasn’t perfect. He got the height of the peak (and subsequent decline) wrong by about 30%. Still, we should give credit where it’s due. Before Hubbert, most people thought that the peak of US oil production was a problem for the distant future. It was not.
Figure 2: US oil production and Hubbert’s 1956 prediction. Hubbert assumed that the US would eventually harvest 200 billion barrels of oil, and that the peak of production would come in 1970. [Sources and methods].
Until the late 2000s, US oil production continued to decline as Hubbert predicted. Then in 2008, something changed. Oil production began to rise. Today, Hubbert’s prediction is flat out wrong. He predicted that by 2020, the US would produce 20% as much oil as it did in 1970. Instead, it produces 20% more oil. Why the reversal?
What you’re seeing after 2008 is the shale-oil boom. Unlike conventional crude oil, shale oil is found in solid form. It’s essentially oil trapped within sedimentary rock. Over the last decade, the US has exploited its shale-oil reserves, with dramatic results that Hubbert didn’t predict. To many people, this boom spells the end of Hubbert’s ‘doomism’.
I think this euphoria is unwarranted. Like conventional crude, shale oil is a finite resource that will eventually be exhausted. What’s more, none of the shale oil currently being harvested is a new discovery. In fact, Hubbert knew about it in 1956. He pegged US shale-oil reserves at about 1 trillion barrels of oil. (Modern estimates peg US shale reserves between 0.3 – 1.5 trillion barrels.) To give you some perspective, that’s about 5 times more shale oil than Hubbert’s estimate for the total US reserve of conventional crude oil (which he pegged at 200 billion barrels). But while he knew about shale reserves, Hubbert didn’t include them in his peak-oil prediction. Why?
His reason was simple — there was no commercially viable way to extract shale oil. Today, evidently, things have changed (although perhaps not as much as you might think.) In 2008, oil companies started to harvest shale oil using a process called hydraulic fracturing (i.e. fracking). This involves pumping high-pressure liquid into a wellbore, which then fractures the shale formation, causing oil to flow. It’s a technology that existed (experimentally) when Hubbert made his prediction. But he never foresaw its widespread use.
For many people, the shale-oil revolution spells the end of peak oil — pushing it into the indefinite future. The problem, though, is that it’s easy to be misled by big numbers. Yes, the US probably has some 1 trillion barrels of shale oil in its reserves. But that doesn’t mean that all of it — or even a significant fraction of it — will be harvested.
The reason is that when it comes to harvesting energy, quality is as important as quantity. Here’s a simple example. Every year the Earth releases about 1500 EJ (1018 Joules) of energy in the form of geothermal heat. To give you some perspective, that’s about 250% more energy than humanity used in 2019.1 Can this vast geothermal reserve solve our energy problems?
The problem is that while the quantity of geothermal energy is enormous, its quality is poor. Most geothermal energy comes as low-temperature heat that’s spread across the Earth’s surface. This diffuseness makes geothermal energy difficult to harvest. Because of this poor quality, we’ll probably harvest only a minuscule fraction of the Earth’s geothermal energy.
The same is probably true of shale oil. Yes, there are potentially 1 trillion barrels of shale oil waiting to be harvested. But this oil is difficult to extract. And for that reason, my guess is that most of it will probably remain unused.
Although shale-oil production has exploded in the last decade, cracks in the euphoria are starting to appear. That’s because the shale boom has been driven largely by the promise of profit. Shale companies swallowed big losses while they ramped up production. The assumption was that windfall profits would eventually come. They haven’t. As Jed Graham observes, “Shale companies simply haven’t made much money from the fracking revolution.” In many ways, this lack of profit vindicates what many peak-oil theorists have been saying for years. Yes, the stock of shale oil is huge. But most of this stock, they say, is probably not worth harvesting.
What fraction of its shale oil will the US eventually exploit? That’s hard to know. But suppose it’s 20%. If Hubbert was correct to peg shale reserves at 1 trillion barrels, that means the US will eventually harvest 200 billion barrels of shale oil. That’s a lot of oil — about the same as Hubbert’s estimate for the entire US reserve of conventional crude oil. This plethora of oil should buy us a lot of time, right?
Actually, no. Figure 3 shows what happens when we add 200 billion barrels of shale oil to Hubbert’s original peak-oil prediction. What it gets us is a second peak … today. If this guess is correct, what’s ahead is not the euphoric growth of oil production, but steep decline.
Figure 3: US oil production and a revised Hubbert prediction. I’ve assumed here that the US will eventually harvest 200 billion barrels of shale oil. Adding this value to Hubbert’s original estimate of 200 billion barrels of recoverable US crude gives the red curve for future oil production. [Sources and methods].
Time will tell if this prediction is correct. (If you’re reading this post in 2030, remind me to revisit my prediction.)
Peak oil goes away
After Hubbert’s 1956 prediction, the idea of peak oil went largely undiscussed for the rest of the 20th century. The reason was familiar — the peak of global oil production was a problem for the distant future.
Hubbert predicted that global oil production would peak at the turn of the 21st century. Unsurprisingly, it was around this time that interest in peak oil was revived. In 2005, The Oil Drum was born, sparking much peak-oil commentary. At the same time, geologists like Colin J. Campbell and Jean H. Laherrère revisited Hubbert’s predictions for global oil production and found that the timing was on track. Conventional oil production, they argued, would soon peak.
Then came the US shale-oil boom. It’s no exaggeration to say that the shale boom killed talk of peak oil. Figure 4 tells the story. I’ve plotted here the frequency of the phrase ‘peak oil’ in the Google books corpus. Its popularity exploded in the early 2000s. But after 2008 — the year that the shale boom began — talk of peak oil plummeted.
Figure 4: The rise and fall of peak oil discussion. I’ve plotted here the frequency of the phrase ‘peak oil’ in the Google books corpus. [Sources and methods].Today, peak oil is again a fringe idea. But while discussion went away, the problem didn’t. In fact, the peak of conventional crude oil is already behind us.
The peak of conventional oil
In 1956, M. King Hubbert predicted that the global production of oil would peak around the year 2000. Looking only at conventional crude oil, it turns out that Hubbert got the timing right. As Figure 5 shows, the global peak of conventional crude production came in 2005. But despite getting the timing right, Hubbert got the height of the peak wrong by a factor of 2.
Figure 5: Global production of conventional crude oil. I compare here the the global production of conventional crude oil to predictions by Hubbert and Hallock et al. Hubbert got the timing right, but the height of the peak wrong. Hallock’s prediction (which is based on far better data) remains on track. [Sources and methods].
It may just be luck that Hubbert got the height of the peak wrong but the timing right. But this luck still illustrates an important principle: exponential growth can quickly eat away at any resource. Hubbert underestimated the amount of crude oil we would discover. But we exploited this larger reserve faster than he anticipated. So his timing remained correct.
To be fair to Hubbert, when he made his prediction, the size of the crude oil stock was uncertain. Today there is less uncertainty, which makes modeling easier.
Perhaps the most rigorous prediction (to date) for conventional oil production comes from John Hallock Jr. and colleagues. In 2004, Hallock estimated the conventional oil reserves in all of the major oil-producing countries. Based on the range of these estimates, Hallock then created different scenarios for future oil production. In 2014, Hallock and colleagues revisited these scenarios to see which one was correct. Global oil production, they found, was following the low-end estimate. Figure 5 shows Hallock’s low-end model. It’s shockingly accurate. For the last 20 years, the model has predicted the global production of conventional oil to within 2%.
The real test for Hallock’s prediction will come in the next few decades. If the model is correct, we’re on the precipice of an oil-production collapse. By 2040, the model predicts that we’ll be back to 1960-levels of oil production. But by then, the oil will be used by 3 times the population.
If you’re reading this post in 2040 (and I haven’t kicked the bucket), remind me to revisit Hallock’s prediction.
The path ahead
Predicting the peak of global oil production has always involved a large dose of uncertainty. To predict peak oil, you must estimate 3 things:
Needless to say, estimating these 3 quantities is not easy. That’s why peak oil predictions are often wrong. Imagine at the beginning of the industrial revolution trying to predict the amount of crude oil humanity would eventually discover. You’d be lucky to get within a factor of 10.
As time goes by, though, the future becomes easier to see. That’s because fewer and fewer oil reserves remain undiscovered. In 1956, Hubbert guessed that humanity would eventually harvest 1.25 trillion barrels of (conventional) oil. How close was he? We won’t know until we’ve exhausted all our oil. But if Hallock’s model is correct, humanity will eventually harvest 1.9 trillion barrels of conventional crude. So Hubbert may have gotten it right to within a factor of 2.
That’s not bad.
When it comes to unconventional oil, estimates become even harder. For one thing, the size of these reserves are poorly known. Worse still, we have no idea what portion of these reserves we will eventually exploit. (With conventional crude, we know that we’ll exploit almost everything we discover.) So the future of total oil production (both conventional and unconventional) remains uncertain.
Technological optimists think that unconventional oil will push the peak of total oil production into the distant future. I’m more skeptical. Assuming Hallock’s model is right, I doubt that unconventional oil sources will offset the coming collapse of conventional crude production. In fact, I’d go a step further and say that we’re able to harvest low-quality shale oil precisely because we’re producing so much conventional crude. Take away the conventional crude, and I’d guess that harvesting low-quality shale oil will become unfeasible.
Whatever happens, it’s clear that the future will be unlike the past. Every living human has known nothing but energy boom. But when you harvest an exhaustible resource, the bust always comes. It’s just a matter of when.
[Update: A reader has pointed out that tight oil is the preferred term for fracked shale oil. Also, Hubbert’s prediction for US oil production (Fig. 2) was for the lower 48 states. I’ve compared it to oil production in all 50 states — not a particularly fair comparison.]
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OIL AND GAS
15 September 2020 17:25
Analysis: World has already passed ‘peak oil [DEMAND!]’, BP figures reveal
The world has already passed “peak oil” demand, according to Carbon Brief analysis of the latest energy outlook from oil major BP (CLICK FOR ARTICLE WITH CRITICAL GRAPHS).
The 2020 edition of the annual outlook reveals – albeit indirectly – that global oil demand will not regain the levels seen last year. It adds that demand could soon fall rapidly in the face of stronger climate action – by at least 10% this decade and by as much as 50% over the next 20 years.
The latest outlook was delayed by six months so that it could reflect the unprecedented impact of the coronavirus pandemic. The delay also reflects BP’s plans, set out over the course of this year, to reach net-zero emissions by 2050 – as an “integrated energy company”, rather than an oil major.
This means that alongside its conservative “business-as-usual” scenario – in which demand for gas continues to rise indefinitely – BP has also looked at the effect of stronger climate action. In its “rapid” and “net-zero” scenarios, coal and oil see fast declines, while gas peaks by 2025 or 2035.
Although the net-zero focus is new, Carbon Brief analysis shows the outlook continues the trend of previous editions, by cutting the prospects for fossil fuels while raising the bar for renewables.
Global oil demand has doubled over the past 50 years, reaching around 100m barrels per day in 2019, equivalent to an annual energy consumption of 192 exajoules (EJ).
In earlier editions of the BP outlook, global oil demand was expected to continue rising steadily. Indeed, successive editions had raised the outlook for oil, shown in blue lines in the chart below.
By 2018, BP’s outlook started to foresee an end to the upwards march for oil, with demand peaking by the mid-2030s. But the downwards revision in this year’s edition is much more dramatic (red lines), showing demand having already peaked in 2019, with large potential downside risks.
Global oil demand 1965-2050, exajoules. Historical data is shown in black, while previous editions of the BP outlook are shown in shades of blue. The three scenarios from the latest 2020 edition are shown in shades of red. Source: Carbon Brief analysis of BP Energy Outlooks 2011-2020, the BP Statistical Review 2020 and International Energy Agency forecasts for 2020. Chart by Carbon Brief using Highcharts.
In his presentation for the new outlook, BP chief economist Spencer Dale does say that it shows oil demand having peaked in 2019, but only in two of the three scenarios. For the “business-as-usual” scenario, he says demand is “more resilient” and recovers to “around its pre-Covid levels” by 2025.
However, Carbon Brief analysis of the outlook, combined with BP figures released separately in June, shows that oil demand would never surpass levels seen in 2019, when measured in terms of the energy it contains.
[The outlook data puts oil demand in 2018 at 190.4EJ, but does not include a figure for 2019. The BP statistical review reported oil demand growth of 0.8% between 2018 and 2019, which Carbon Brief used to estimate demand in 2019 of 191.9EJ. This is marginally higher than the level of demand in 2025 under the business-as-usual outlook, some 191.3EJ.]
It is interesting to compare the latest outlook to the words co-authored by Dale in a January 2018 commentary with Bassam Fattouh, director of the Oxford Institute of Energy Studies. In that piece, the pair argued that the focus on peak oil “seems misplaced”. They continued:
“More importantly, there is little reason to believe that once it does peak, that oil demand will fall sharply. The world is likely to demand large quantities of oil for many decades to come.”
In contrast, the newly released BP outlook shows that oil demand could indeed “fall significantly”, declining by at least 10% by 2030 and by as much as 50% by 2040.
The largest reduction in oil demand is in BP’s “net-zero” scenario, where global CO2 emissions fall by more than 95% in 2050, compared to their 2018 levels.
This trajectory is, says BP, “slower” than in “below 1.5C” scenarios published by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, meaning faster declines in fossil fuel use – or reliance on negative emissions – would be needed to stay within this temperature limit.
As ever, a key underlying feature of the BP outlook is its assumptions about the overall increase in global energy demand as populations rise and incomes expand.
Historically, energy demand has risen steadily with few interruptions, as the chart below shows. Previous editions of the BP outlook have seen demand continuing to rise at a similar pace (blue lines), with improvements in energy efficiency being offset by economic and population growth.
This year’s outlook marks a dramatic shift in this view, with global energy demand growth either slowing down or even levelling off over the next three decades (red lines).
Global energy demand 1965-2050, exajoules. Historical data is shown in black, while previous editions of the BP outlook are shown in shades of blue. The three scenarios from the latest 2020 edition are shown in shades of red. Source: Carbon Brief analysis of BP Energy Outlooks 2011-2020, the BP Statistical Review 2020 and International Energy Agency forecasts for 2020. Chart by Carbon Brief using Highcharts.
As Carbon Brief showed last year, an ever-expanding demand for energy has been the central driver of long-term demand for fossil fuels in BP’s outlooks. In contrast, other organisations have suggested that demand could slow down, leaving fossil fuels squeezed out by renewable growth.
Part of this year’s shift from BP is down to the coronavirus pandemic, seen clearly in the charts above, where demand in 2020 is estimated using International Energy Agency (IEA) forecasts.
According to BP, the pandemic has cut the outlook for long-term energy demand in two ways. First, it cuts the prospects for economic growth and, second, it is assumed that some behavioural changes – notably, home working – will persist, even as other changes dissipate over time.
The weaker prospects for global energy demand and slower growth for oil are a continuation of the trend in each successive edition of BP’s outlook over the past decade.
This year’s edition once again cuts the outlook for fossil fuels, as the charts below show, with the most dramatic revisions having been applied to coal use. (BP’s past outlooks have also consistently raised the bar for renewable growth, but this year leaves it largely unchanged.)
Global energy demand by fuel, 2000-2050, exajoules. Previous editions of the BP outlook are shown in shades of blue. The “business-as-usual” scenario from the latest 2020 edition is shown in red. Source: Carbon Brief analysis of BP Energy Outlooks2011-2020, the BP Statistical Review 2020 and International Energy Agency forecasts for 2020. Chart by Carbon Brief using Highcharts. (SEE ARTICLE FOR GRAPHS)
While this year’s “business-as-usual” scenario does not significantly alter the outlook for renewables compared with last year’s edition, the “rapid” and “net-zero” pathways show the likes of wind and solar recording explosive growth over the next three decades.
In the net-zero scenario, renewables supply some 130EJ in 2030, more than four times their output in 2019 and similar to current supplies from gas. By 2040, renewables more than double again to reach 296EJ, equivalent to the current total from coal and gas combined.
Just three years ago, BP’s outlook included a peak in global coal demand for the first time. Now, it sees demand falling ever faster, dropping to a fifth below 2019 levels by 2050. In the “rapid” and “net-zero” scenarios, demand for coal falls by one-third by 2030 and by around 90% by 2050.
Notably, this year’s outlook also trims the prospects for gas more significantly than had been the case in previous years. There is even greater downside risk for gas in the “net-zero” pathway, where demand peaks by 2025 and falls to 36% below 2019 levels by 2050. The “rapid” pathway sees gas demand peaking by 2035 and returning to 2019 levels by mid-century.
THIS IS FROM MY GENDERSOCIETY.COM POST OF MARCH, 2016! THE TWO PRIMARY CHANGES:
1. SIBERIAN METHANE HAS GONE THROUGH THE ROOF! SEE THE PAST POSTS.
IPCC ISSUES MORE NO-METHANE NON-SCIENCE! JUST MORE BS FOR THE BILLIONAIRE FAU LIBERALS! "COMPLETELY ICE FREE ARCTIC" EXPLODES SIBERIAN METHANE! CAUSING HYPER-EXPONENTIAL METHANE RELEASE! "HOT STUFF!" ARISES TO INSURE "It Is THE END!"
THE MOST IMPORTANT POST: WELCOME TO "THE END OF THE WORLD!" "THANK GOD!" "It Is THE END!" PUTIN STARTS WWIII! 1 "THE FINAL JUDGEMENT" BY 2027! DURING "THE SECOND COMING!" MOST BLESSED - "NORDIC MODEL SUPPORTERS!" THE MOST DAMNED "THE EVIL RICH & RIGHT WING ANTI-CHRISTIANS!"
"PUTIN'S WWIII BURNS UP PLANET EVIL GREED FAST!" YEAH! "VLAD/TRUMP 2024!" & "MAKE AMERICA RUSSIA AGAIN!" INSTEAD OF UKRAINE WAR! SIBERIAN METHANE IS EXPLODING! "MAKE AMERICA DENMARK NOW!" NOW! GO HOME "CHOOSING GOD!" "NOT MONEY!" 100% RENEWABLE!
2. "TIGHT OIL" . . HAS THEORETICALLY PUT OFF . . "HUBBERT'S CLIFF" . .
. . BY ROUGHLY 10 YEARS 2040-2050! VERSUS 2030 TO 2040 MY 2016 . .
. . FORECAST! HOWEVER, "PUTIN'S WAR" USING AND BURNING OIL! . .
. . FRAGMENTING THE #1 SOURCE OF GAS AND #8 SOURCE OF OIL! RUSSIA!
. . FROM THE REST OF THE WORLD! . . 4 THE "XI / VLAD TATERSHIP!" AND . .
THE LIKELY MASSIVE COLLAPSE DUE TO . . "ICE FREE ARCTIC" . . UNLEASHING
. . "THE SIBERIAN METHANE MONSTER!" . . MAY . . CAUSE SUPPLY ISSUES . .
. . AND . . MASSIVE DEMAND FOR A . . "GLOBAL POLICE STATE!" THAT MAY . .
. . "MIMMIC PEAK OIL SUPPLY!" . . BY 2025 - 2030 . . WHEN "HOT STUFF" ARISES!
MASSIVE QUANTITIES OF . . "SIBERIAN METHANE HYDRATES" . . ARE . .
. . PRIMARILY ON . . THE BARENTS SEA . . YAMAL PENINSULA & THE KARA SEA!
. . PER THE . . "UNDISCOVERED GAS MAP" . . ON . . THE LAST POST!
. . THROUGH . . "THE EAST SIBERIAN ARCTIC SHELF" . . (ESAS)! . . THESE . .
. . "MASSIVE GAS RESERVES" ARE ESTIMATED TO BE ROUGHLY . .
. . 1,050 . . TO . . 10,500 GIGATONS OF METHANE! . .
THE LEADING SCIENTIST . . NATALIA SHAKOVA . . ON SIBERIAN METHANE IN 2008!
STATED UP TO A "50 GIGATON RELEAS OF SIBERIAN METHANE MAY HAPPEN ANY TIME!"
SINCE 2008 . . DR. GUY MCPHERSON HAS BEEN SCREAMING ABOUT . .
. . "THE CLATHRATE GUN FIRING!" . . DUE TO THE WORK OF . . IGOR SEMILETOV . . AND . .
. . NATALIA SHAKOVA . . WHO IN APRIL 2008 SAID . . . .
"We consider release of up to 50 Gt of predicted amont of hydrate storage possible for abrupt release at any time. That may cause approx 12 times increse of modern atmospheric methane burden with consequent catastrophic greenhouse warming."
SIMPLY A DOUBLE OF THE GLOBAL BURDEN OF METHANE . . ONLY 5 Gt! . . WOULD INSURE
. . NEAR-TERM HUMAN EXTINCTION! . . THE BIG DEAL . . "COMPLETELY ICE FREE ARCTIC!"
. . WILL CAUSE . . "WATER TEMPERATURES IN THE ARCTIC TO EXPLODE!"
. . DUE TO . . "THE LATENT HEAT EFFECT OF FUSION!" . . THE HEAT OF THE ARCTIC SUN . .
. . NO LONGER MELTING ARCTIC ICE! . . INSTEAD . . EXPLODING WATER TEMPERATURES!
EXPLODING WATER TEMPS WILL CAUSE "GIGATONS OF METHANE TO BE RELEASED!"
. . A STRONG EL NINO, EARTHQUAKES AND SUPER STORMS MAY RELEASE GIGATONS!
. . COUPLED WITH . . "THE LATENT HEAT EFFECT" . . CAUSES . . "APOCALYPTIC RELEASE!"
UNDER THE EAST SIBERIAN ARCTIC SHELF (ESAS) . . OVER TO THE BARENTS SEA!
ARE POTENTIALLY . . MASSIVE POOLS OF . . SIBERIAN METHANE . . READY TO EXPLODE!
LIKE THE EXPLODED . . "METHANE PINGOS" . . THAT LOOK LIKE CRATERS ON SIBERIA!
SEE THE PICTURES! . . THESE MASSIVE PINGOS ARE LIKELY ENORMOUS POOLS!
SIMILAR TO WHAT HAS CREATED . . "HELLS GATE CRATER!" . . ONLY MUCH LARGER!
SIMILAR TO WHAT RUSSIA IS SUCKING METHANE OUT OF FOR . . NATURAL GAS TO SELL!
WHEN THESE MASSIVE POOLS START . . EXPLODING AND/OR RAPIDLY OFF GASING!
. . THE WATER TEMPERATURE AND AIR TEMPERATURE IN SIBERIA WILL RISE . .
. . "HYPER-EXPONENTIALLY!" . . THE TEMP ON THE "SUMMER SOLSTICE" 2020 . 100.4 F!
. . THIS WAS AN ALL TIME RECORD! . . ONLY TO BE CLOBBERED IN JUNE 2021 . . 118 F!
WAIT UNTIL 2025! . . MY GUESS . . TEMPS IN THE . . 150 F TO 170 F! . . EXPLODING . .
. . MORE METHANE RELEASE! . . WHAT HAPPENED THE LAST TIME . . "HOT STUFF" AROSE?
Methane Hydrate: Killer cause of Earth's greatest mass extinction
Palaeoworld Volume 25, Issue 4, December 2016, Pages 496-507
Based on measurements of gases trapped in biogenic and abiogenic calcite, the release of methane (of ∼3–14% of total C stored) from permafrost and shelf sediment methane hydrate is deemed the ultimate source and cause for the dramatic life-changing global warming (GMAT > 34 °C) and oceanic negative-carbon isotope excursion observed at the end Permian. Global warming triggered by the massive release of carbon dioxide may be catastrophic, but the release of methane from hydrate may be apocalyptic.
WITH ONLY 3% TO 14% OF THE METHANE HYDRATES ESTIMATED TO EXIST THEN!
. . 250 MIL YEARS AGO (MYA)! . . WHICH HAVE BEEN ADDED TO MASSIVELY!
GLOBAL TEMPS MORE THAN DOUBLED . . RISING 34 C = 61.2 F! OMG!
WITH ONLY 2-3 C OF HIGHER GLOBAL TEMPS (GMAT) . . ANDRILL 2007 DOCUMENTED
. . BOTH WEST AND EAST ANTARCTICA MELTED! . . CAUSING 60-75' OF SEA LEVEL RISE!
ADD . . "THE MONSTER SUPER STORMS" . . AND . . "SUPER STORM SURGE!"
. . KABOOOM! . . THE WORLD'S 440 NUCLEAR REACTORS! AND MOST OF 12,700 NUCS!
RESULTING IN . . RADIOACTIVE AND ACIDIC OCEANS AND RAINS! . . INSURING . .
"THANK GOD!" . . "It Is THE END!" . . OF . . "RUTHLESS RULE BY THE EVIL RICH!" . . BY 2030!
THE GLOBAL ATMOSPHERIC BURDEN OF METHANE IS 5 Gt! . .
. . SIBERIA'S ESTIMATED . . 1,050 GIGATONS . . TO . . 10,500 GIGATONS OF
. . METHANE COULD SUPPLY THE WORLD'S GAS NEEDS FOR MANY YEARS!
IF MANY PEOPLE INCLUDING THE TOP SCIENTIST ON SIBERIAN METHANE . .
. . ARE CORRECT! A MASSIVE 50 GIGATON METHANE RELEASE! . . "HOT STUFF!"
. . MAY PUT AN END TO . . "HOMOGREEDIOUS!" . . BY ROUGHLY 2030 -2040!
"THANK GOD!" . . "It IsTHE END!"
MY CONTINUING GENDERSOCIETY.COM POST (SEARCH FOR JAZZIE) 2016
To understand what peak energy is, I suggest that you read Wikipedia on peak oil, peak gas, peak coal, and peak uranium. Plus if you search for Crude in Youtube (ABOVE), this is the best documentary I have ever seen, and one of the most important, the title will show the incredible journey of oil. Then if you search on Youtube for Must See Oil Peak, surprisingly a Republican Representative, Roscoe Bartlett, R-VA, has the best presentation I have ever seen on peak oil.
The primary thing that I believe most peak oil and gas people don't get, is that we are now very good at sucking out what is left with new technology. As one VP from Saudi Aramco said, technology has basically allowed us to suck out what is left much more efficiently, it has not resulted in finding any significant reserves that we did not expect were there, with the exception of maybe Brazil, from his perspective. Now we have found out that Petrobras' findings in Brazil were mostly fabricated! The documentary on Youtube, Crude, will explain why we know what is left and where it is.
So what I expect is instead of a slow drop in oil production, like the back of a smooth bell shaped curve, I expect a rapid drop in production, what I call Hubbert's Cliff, after we have sucked out most of what is left. M. King Hubbert was the father of peak oil, presentations on his work are on Youtube. Al Bartlett's presentation, Mathematics, Population and Energy is a timeless classic. The basic math on when the world may fall off Hubbert's Cliff is simple, the US Energy Information Association (US EIA) statistics page
shows 1,656 billion barrels of proven oil reserves.
However, if you read Peak Oil on Wikipedia, under concerns over stated reserves, you will see that OPEC increased their stated reserves by around 300 billion in reserves in 1988, when OPEC tied production quotas to stated reserves. So these 300 billion are fabricated reserves. Plus, OPEC has never decreased their stated reserves, all the while, providing roughly 2/3 of the world's oil supply. This is simply impossible, so if we take off another 300 billion in a rough guess that they have used around 1/2 of their prior stated reserves, you have roughly 1 trillion barrels of reserves.
This makes the amount the world has used in oil, roughly 1/2 of what is remaining, just what most people have estimated it is. Then you can make a further assumption that the amount that we may find over the coming years, is equal to the amount we can't get to of the remaining stated reserves. Consumption of oil was just over 33 billion barrels per year in 2013, the latest data on the above page. Estimates are around 50 billion barrels per year demand by 2050. If you take 40 as a low average over these years, this results in around 25 years of oil remaining. I assume that the world will start running out rapidly in 15-25 years, around 2030 to 2040, very likely at the beginning of this period, and quite possibly, much earlier, if most stated reserves are way over stated, like OPEC's and Brazil's reserves are. Venezuela represents 298 billion (see US IEA energy stats tables, link above), of my revised estimate of 1 trillion barrels remaining. This is not only heavy crude, much more costly to refine, there is the big question of how accurate are the estimates. What do you think?
You can read about the US reserves of natural gas, estimated to run out around the same time period, just search for the article - What the Frack: Is there really 100 years of gas under the US. These scientists argue their is at most 33 years of gas remaining, and if we use natural gas for coal fired power plants, and long-haul trucking, their estimate is that we only have roughly 11 years remaining.
A read of peak uranium, suggests that we may run out of uranium around the same time period. Watch the presentation noted below by Dr. Hosea, and you should get a good understanding why many of us feel nuclear is not the answer. In spite of Bill Gates apparently wanting to supersede the Rothchild's wealth, by investing in 4th generation nuclear! Too bad he doesn't use Buffet's and his wealth, to transition the world to wind and solar now. Both hydrogen and thorium have problems as energy sources. Elon Musk calls hydrogen cars, fool cells, http://gas2.org/2015/02/24/elon-musk-shreds-hydrogen-fuel-cells/.
He notes on the link above: "Hydrogen is an energy storage mechanism. It is not a source of energy. So you have to get that hydrogen from somewhere. if you get that hydrogen from water, so you’re splitting H20, electrolysis is extremely inefficient as an energy process…. if you say took a solar panel and use the energy from that to just charge a battery pack directly, compared to try to split water, take the hydrogen, dump the oxygen, compress the hydrogen to an extremely high pressure (or liquefy it) and then put it in a car and run a fuel-cell, it is about half the efficiency, it’s terrible. Why would you do that? It makes no sense. That doesn’t even bring into account the various problems building an all-new infrastructure, as well as the environmental impact of sourcing hydrogen from natural gas, currently the most popular way to produce vehicle-grade hydrogen."
I would also stress, using natural gas to produce hydrogen, does not consider the fact that we will likely run out of natural gas in the period from 2030-2050, if not sooner, if we use it for coal fired power plants, long-haul trucking, and to make hydrogen. We may only have five years of natural gas remaining!
As noted in Wikipedia, there are several challenges to the application of thorium as a nuclear fuel, particularly for solid fuel reactors: They state (Thorium, Wikipedia): In contrast to uranium, naturally occurring thorium is effectively mononuclidic and contains no fissile isotopes; fissile material, generally 233U, 235U or plutonium, must be added to achieve criticality. This, along with the high sintering temperature necessary to make thorium-dioxide fuel, complicates fuel fabrication.
IF IT WEREN'T FOR . . "HOT STUFF" . . BURNING UP . . PLANET EVIL GREED! . . BY 2030-40!
. . I WOULD STILL HAVE EXPECTED . . "THE OIL AND WAR LORDS" . . SATAN'S MAFIA!
. . TO HAVE INVESTED IN THESE HARD FOSSIL FUELS . . VS . . SOLAR AND WIND!
TRULY EVIL GREED DRIVEN INSANE . . MONEY MONSTERS! THEIR OPERATORS & WHORES!
I believe that the world will scale up hard fossil fuel production (tar sands to oil, shale to oil, and coal to oil) to replace cheap fossil fuel production, when the world falls off Hubbert's Cliff, if I am correct in the thirties, due in large part, in my opinion, to the Koch Brothers, Citizens United, and the Evil Wrong. Dark Money is a good read on these evil billionaires. The Koch Brothers own 25% of the Canadian tar sands oil, and one of the original tar sands oil refineries, Pine Bend. This refinery is also one of the most polluting refineries, due to the age of the refinery, and wealth of Koch Brothers. As hard fossil fuel production is significantly more carbon intensive, than cheap fossil fuel production, I believe that this will insure 7-10C rise in global mean temps by 2100; versus the current estimate by the IPCC of a 6-7C rise in global mean temps by 2100, assuming a large transition to renewables. This, in my opinion, will release some of the roughly 1,400-1,700 gigatons of methane hydrates in the Siberian/artic permafrost (Wikipedia, permafrost), around 2100.
Watch Artic Death Spiral and the Methane Timebomb on Youtube, and search for methane hydrates holes in Siberian permafrost for the latest info. Large holes in the Siberian permafrost are already being found. See the show What on Earth, 2016, Who Built Supervillain Island?, the last segment is on these methane holes, suggesting that these methane hydrates are already being released. In the documentary Artic Death Spiral, the woman from Russia talks about this risk, she looks very concerned. I wonder why? She notes that the amount of ice on the Siberian permafrost has dropped from 2 meters, 6 feet, down to inches. Since 1751, the beginning of the industrial revolution, roughly 305 gigatons of carbon has been released from all fossil fuel burning (arm.gov/education).
THIS POST FROM MARCH 2016, WAS JUST AT THE BEGINNING OF . .
. . THE MASSIVE RISE IN SIBERIAN METHANE! . . THE NUMBER OF . .
. . "METHANE PINGOS" . . WENT FROM . . "A FEW!" IN 2016! . . TO AN
. . ESTIMATE OF . . 7,000 ON THE YAMAL PENINSULA! . . 100K EST IN SIBERIA!
I guess it might be because the Siberian/artic permafrost is estimated to have roughly 5 times the amount of carbon, in methane hydrates, as has been released in the whole planet, since the beginning of the industrial revolution from all fossil fuel burning. And there may not be any way to stop a critical amount of it from being released, once it starts. What do you think?
Even a small amount of these methane hydrates being released, I believe, will ultimately cause a chain reaction of the explosion of the 500 and growing nuclear power plants. That is, if Fukushima does not implode and cause this prior to this time. Add to this, the explosion of the methane hydrates being released globally, not just the Siberian/artic permafrost (Alaska, Canada, Greenland) insuring the death of all species on the planet, in my opinion, sometime around the turn of the century, plus or minus, 40 years.
This basic scenario is what caused the Permian extinction, which caused the extinction of 95% of all species. Except it was the volcanic eruptions all around Siberia that released the methane hydrates, when global mean temps were only 6C higher, based on most estimates. This time, if I and thousands of other scientists are correct, it will be animal agriculture, burning of fossil fuels, and scaling up of hard fossil fuel production, that will release these massive stores of methane hydrates. Add the possible sequential explosion of the worlds nuclear power plants, and the Money Monster may well make the earth just another dead planet!
Good luck using those underground cities, and private islands, to wait out this collapse! I got a feeling the billionaires and their supporters, in these places, will be roasty toasty, seeing the rest of us die, only to die the most horrific deaths, prior to ending up going to the place God made for the devil and his angles for eternity (read Matthew 25:30-46, the Scandinavian countries are the only ones, in my opinion, that would pass this Christian test of helping the least of my brothers)!
"Methane Hydrates: Killer Cause of The Earth's Greatest Mass Extinction," 12/2016, argues that with only roughly 3-14% of the Methane Hydrates in Siberia and The Arctic, which have roughly 15 trillion of the earth's 30 trillion tons of methane hydrates, the earth's Global Mean Average Temperature, GMAT, skyrocketed 34C - 93.2F! Eliminating all complex life on earth for 11 million years!
A Yale nuclear physicist in 2012 presented a paper arguing that if any of Fukushima's spent rods touch each other, it could put all of humanity in peril for thousands of years (infowars.com, 9/21/13). If you watch Dr. Stephen Hosea's presentations on Youtube,
Original: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2zGQPe3_ikQ, Update: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=FAcB0UnnEeY, you can grasp the impending risks of this situation.
I began this work on The Limits to Growth, in a doctoral symposium in economic demography, under a visiting professor from Stanford, as a Junior, at the University of Utah, in 1980. I believe, right or wrong, that the two year study that I did at that time, was the last straw that stopped the deployment of the MX missile system, the largest, and most insane, project ever proposed by mankind. I documented the first case of what I referred to as - the baby-boom town syndrome. The estimates were a need of 250,000 people to build the MX, with an average under estimate of four times for large defense contracts, to secure contracts, using significant under estimating. Fifty of the fifty-two projects in the Utah 2000 High Development Scenario, were alternative energy projects, it was the peak of the oil spike in 1980.
Both the MX and alternative energy development projects had boom-town development patterns, with high demand for labor to build the projects, then a steep fall off in demand, in this case, between 1987-2000. Seventy to eighty percent of Utah's growth were babies of the Baby Boom generation, a baby boom wave cycle, estimated to enter the work force at the same time, 1987-2000. These two forces, a baby boom-town syndrome, would cause enormous dislocation of workers and new workers into the Utah population at the same time, roughly half of the population. More importantly, Utah is Mormon, and believe Utah is the Land of Zion.
My study, The Utah MX Baby Bomb, concluded that if they built the MX, it would send most of their young out of the state, and Utah would no longer be the Land of Zion. No new studies had been submitted for three months prior to my study being submitted to the Mormon Church and the Defense Department, and it was a go ahead at the time. Two weeks after I submitted my study, the Mormon Church came out against the MX, not long after, the Defense Department scrapped the insane project. I consider this to be my most important contribution to the planet.
I would like to acknowledge and thank Rick Lakin, a teacher at Hilltop High School, 555 Claire Avenue, Chula Vista, CA 91911. Mr. Lakin obtained a copy of this speech from a biographer of ADM. Rickover. With the help of a student, he scanned and posted it at The Energy Bulletin.
Congressman Roscoe G. Bartlett http://energybulletin.net/23151.html
Published on Saturday, December 2, 2006 by Energy Bulletin
PER ROSCOE - THE MOST PROFOUND SPEECH OF THE 20TH CENTURY!
"Energy resources and our future"
Remarks by Admiral Hyman Rickover delivered . . "in 1957!"
By Rear Admiral Hyman G. Rickover, U.S. Navy
FOR RELEASE AT 7:00 P.M. TUESDAY, MAY 14, 1957 Remarks Prepared by
Rear Admiral Hyman G. Rickover, USN
Chief, Naval Reactors Branch Division of Reactor Development U.S. Atomic Energy Commission and Assistant Chief of the Bureau of Ships for Nuclear Propulsion Navy Department
For Delivery at a Banquet of the Annual Scientific Assembly of the Minnesota State Medical Association, St. Paul, Minnesota
May 14, 1957
Energy Resources and Our Future
I am honored to be here tonight, though it is no easy thing, I assure you, for a layman to face up to an audience of physicians. A single one of you, sitting behind his desk, can be quite formidable.
My speech has no medical connotations. This may be a relief to you after the solid professional fare you have been absorbing. I should like to discuss a matter which will, I hope, be of interest to you as responsible citizens: the significance of energy resources in the shaping of our future.
We live in what historians may some day call the Fossil Fuel Age. Today coal, oil, and natural gas supply 93% of the world's energy; water power accounts for only 1%; and the labor of men and domestic animals the remaining 6%. This is a startling reversal of corresponding figures for 1850 - only a century ago. Then fossil fuels supplied 5% of the world's energy, and men and animals 94%. Five sixths of all the coal, oil, and gas consumed since the beginning of the Fossil Fuel Age has been burned up in the last 55 years.
These fuels have been known to man for more than 3,000 years. In parts of China, coal was used for domestic heating and cooking, and natural gas for lighting as early as 1000 B.C. The Babylonians burned asphalt a thousand years earlier. But these early uses were sporadic and of no economic significance. Fossil fuels did not become a major source of energy until machines running on coal, gas, or oil were invented. Wood, for example, was the most important fuel until 1880 when it was replaced by coal; coal, in turn, has only recently been surpassed by oil in this country.
Once in full swing, fossil fuel consumption has accelerated at phenomenal rates. All the fossil fuels used before 1900 would not last five years at today's rates of consumption.
Nowhere are these rates higher and growing faster than in the United States. Our country, with only 6% of the world's population, uses one third of the world's total energy input; this proportion would be even greater except that we use energy more efficiently than other countries. Each American has at his disposal, each year, energy equivalent to that obtainable from eight tons of coal. This is six times the world's per capita energy consumption. Though not quite so spectacular, corresponding figures for other highly industrialized countries also show above average consumption figures. The United Kingdom, for example, uses more than three times as much energy as the world average.
With high energy consumption goes a high standard of living. Thus the enormous fossil energy which we in this country control feeds machines which make each of us master of an army of mechanical slaves. Man's muscle power is rated at 35 watts continuously, or one-twentieth horsepower. Machines therefore furnish every American industrial worker with energy equivalent to that of 244 men, while at least 2,000 men push his automobile along the road, and his family is supplied with 33 faithful household helpers. Each locomotive engineer controls energy equivalent to that of 100,000 men; each jet pilot of 700,000 men. Truly, the humblest American enjoys the services of more slaves than were once owned by the richest nobles, and lives better than most ancient kings. In retrospect, and despite wars, revolutions, and disasters, the hundred years just gone by may well seem like a Golden Age.
Whether this Golden Age will continue depends entirely upon our ability to keep energy supplies in balance with the needs of our growing population. Before I go into this question, let me review briefly the role of energy resources in the rise and fall of civilizations.
Possession of surplus energy is, of course, a requisite for any kind of civilization, for if man possesses merely the energy of his own muscles, he must expend all his strength - mental and physical - to obtain the bare necessities of life.
Surplus energy provides the material foundation for civilized living - a comfortable and tasteful home instead of a bare shelter; attractive clothing instead of mere covering to keep warm; appetizing food instead of anything that suffices to appease hunger. It provides the freedom from toil without which there can be no art, music, literature, or learning. There is no need to belabor the point. What lifted man - one of the weaker mammals - above the animal world was that he could devise, with his brain, ways to increase the energy at his disposal, and use the leisure so gained to cultivate his mind and spirit. Where man must rely solely on the energy of his own body, he can sustain only the most meager existence.
Man's first step on the ladder of civilization dates from his discovery of fire and his domestication of animals. With these energy resources he was able to build a pastoral culture. To move upward to an agricultural civilization he needed more energy. In the past this was found in the labor of dependent members of large patriarchal families, augmented by slaves obtained through purchase or as war booty. There are some backward communities which to this day depend on this type of energy.
Slave labor was necessary for the city-states and the empires of antiquity; they frequently had slave populations larger than their free citizenry. As long as slaves were abundant and no moral censure attached to their ownership, incentives to search for alternative sources of energy were lacking; this may well have been the single most important reason why engineering advanced very little in ancient times.
MY MASTER'S THESIS WAS ON HOW "OFFSHORING MANUFACTURING" . .
. . CAUSED BY . . "THE TIGHT MONETARY & LOOSE FISCAL POLICIES" OF . .
. . "THE EVIL RIGHT WING!" . . BRAIND DEAD MAFIA DON REGAN 1984! . .
. . "MASSIVE TAX CUTS FOR . . THE RICH!" . . "SLASHING . . SOCIAL SPENDING!"
. . COUPLED WITH . . "MASSIVE MILITARY SPENDING FOR THE IMPERIALISTS!"
. . AND "TIGHT" MONETARY POLICIES TO STOP INFLATION, WHILE ALLOWING . .
. . ROOS PEROT AND THE BILLIONAIRES TO GET HISTORICALLY VERY HIGH . .
. . "REAL INTEREST RATES" . . ON TREASURY MUNICIPAL & OTHER BONDS!
WILL RESULT IN . . OFFSHORING OF MANUFACTURING! . . CAUSING A . .
. . "SLAVE BASED MINIMUM WAGE SERVICE ECONOMY!" . .
. . "WITH NO BENEFITS IN THE US!" . . CEO COMPENSATION SKYROCKETED . .
. . BETWEEN 1978 & 2020 BY . . 1,322%! . . UP . . 18.9% . . IN 2020!
. . THE WORST YEAR OF THE PANDEMIC! CEO'S MADE MORE THAN . .
. . THE AVERAGE EMPLOYEE DID OVER THIS PAST 42 YEARS TOTALLY . . 18%"
. . THE AVERAGE WORKER'S PAY ONLY GAINED 18% OVER THESE 42 YEARS!
. . FURTHER, THIS WAS ONLY REALIZED INCOME, NOT DEFERRED INCOME . .
. . FOR THE CEO SATAN'S MAFIA DONS! . . NOT INCLUDING ANY OTHER GAINS!
. . WHILE THE # OF EMPLOYEES COVERED BY PENSION PLANS COLLAPSED!
WHILE CREATING SLAVE BASED MANUFACTURING SWEET SHOPS GLOBALLY!
. . STEALING COUNTRIES NATURAL RESOURCES! POLLUTING THEIR COUNTRIES!
. . WHILE BURYING THESE EMERGING MARKETS IN MASSIVE DEBT SERVITUDE!
. . INSTALLING . . "TRUMPET MAFIA DONS!" . . GIVING THEM BILLIONS . .
. . WHILE . . "ENSLAVING . . THE REST!" . . "FOR . . THE CORPORATE STATE!"
. . "CONFESSIONS OF AN ECONOMIC HITMAN!" AND "NEW CONFESSIONS!"
. . TELL JOHN PERKIN'S STORY! READ "MY HIS STORY!" FOR MY STORY!
PLEASE SEE: "MY HIS STORY!" - "THE ONLY ONE!" THAT COULD WRITE - "THE FINAL TESTAMENT OF JESUS CHRIST!" - "THE LOGICAL GOD OF LOVE!" - BY WHAT - AUTHORITY - DO I WRITE THIS WORK? BY THE AUTHORITY OF - "THE LOGICAL GOD OF LOVE!" - - "JC!" LOVE U!
A reduction of per capita energy consumption has always in the past led to a decline in civilization and a reversion to a more primitive way of life. For example, exhaustion of wood fuel is believed to have been the primary reason for the fall of the Mayan Civilization on this continent and of the decline of once flourishing civilizations in Asia. India and China once had large forests, as did much of the Middle East. Deforestation not only lessened the energy base but had a further disastrous effect: lacking plant cover, soil washed away, and with soil erosion the nutritional base was reduced as well.
Another cause of declining civilization comes with pressure of population on available land. A point is reached where the land can no longer support both the people and their domestic animals. Horses and mules disappear first. Finally even the versatile water buffalo is displaced by man who is two and one half times as efficient an energy converter as are draft animals. It must always be remembered that while domestic animals and agricultural machines increase productivity per man, maximum productivity per acre is achieved only by intensive manual cultivation.
It is a sobering thought that the impoverished people of Asia, who today seldom go to sleep with their hunger completely satisfied, were once far more civilized and lived much better than the people of the West. And not so very long ago, either. It was the stories brought back by Marco Polo of the marvelous civilization in China which turned Europe's eyes to the riches of the East, and induced adventurous sailors to brave the high seas in their small vessels searching for a direct route to the fabulous Orient. The "wealth of the Indies" is a phrase still used, but whatever wealth may be there it certainly is not evident in the life of the people today.
Asia failed to keep technological pace with the needs of her growing populations and sank into such poverty that in many places man has become again the primary source of energy, since other energy converters have become too expensive. This must be obvious to the most casual observer. What this means is quite simply a reversion to a more primitive stage of civilization with all that it implies for human dignity and happiness.
Anyone who has watched a sweating Chinese farm worker strain at his heavily laden wheelbarrow, creaking along a cobblestone road, or who has flinched as he drives past an endless procession of human beasts of burden moving to market in Java - the slender women bent under mountainous loads heaped on their heads - anyone who has seen statistics translated into flesh and bone, realizes the degradation of man's stature when his muscle power becomes the only energy source he can afford. Civilization must wither when human beings are so degraded.
Where slavery represented a major source of energy, its abolition had the immediate effect of reducing energy consumption. Thus when this time-honored institution came under moral censure by Christianity, civilization declined until other sources of energy could be found.
Slavery is incompatible with Christian belief in the worth of the humblest individual as a child of God.
SOO TO IS . . A SERVICE BASED MINIMUM WAGE NO BENEFITS ECONOMY! . .
. . SLAVE BASED RIGGED MONOPOLY CAPITALISM! . . ANTI-CHRISTIAN! EVIL!
. . "TRILLIONS FOR . . THE BILLIONAIRE SLAVE OWNER MONOPOLISTS!" . .
. . "NOTHING . . FOR THE REST!" . . ENLOY HELL . . "EVIL RUTHLESS RICH!"
"THE LOGIC OF THE GOD OF LOVE!" - "JESUS CHRIST" - "THE FIRST RADICAL PACIFIST MARKET SOCIALIST!" - "MEDICARE FOR ALL - CHRISTIAN!" "CAPITALISM IS SATANISM!" JANUARY HOTTEST ON RECORD! THE ANTI-CHRISTIANS ARE KILLING US! IN CHRIST'S NAME! PRAY FOR THEM! Medicare For All Would Save More Than 68,000 Lives And $450 Billion Every Year, According To New Study!
As Christianity spread through the Roman Empire and masters freed their slaves - in obedience to the teaching of the Church - the energy base of Roman civilization crumbled. This, some historians believe, may have been a major factor in the decline of Rome and the temporary reversion to a more primitive way of life during the Dark Ages.
Slavery gradually disappeared throughout the Western world, except in its milder form of serfdom. That it was revived a thousand years later merely shows man’s ability to stifle his conscience - at least for a while - when his economic needs are great. Eventually, even the needs of overseas plantation economies did not suffice to keep alive a practice so deeply repugnant to Western man's deepest convictions.
It may well be that it was unwillingness to depend on slave labor for their energy needs which turned the minds of medieval Europeans to search for alternate sources of energy, thus sparking the Power Revolution of the Middle Ages which, in turn, paved the way for the Industrial Revolution of the 19th Century. When slavery disappeared in the West engineering advanced. Men began to harness the power of nature by utilizing water and wind as energy sources. The sailing ship, in particular, which replaced the slave-driven galley of antiquity, was vastly improved by medieval shipbuilders and became the first machine enabling man to control large amounts of inanimate energy.
The next important high-energy converter used by Europeans was gunpowder - an energy source far superior to the muscular strength of the strongest bowman or lancer. With ships that could navigate the high seas and arms that could outfire any hand weapon, Europe was now powerful enough to preempt for herself the vast empty areas of the Western Hemisphere into which she poured her surplus populations to build new nations of European stock. With these ships and arms she also gained political control over populous areas in Africa and Asia from which she drew the raw materials needed to speed her industrialization, thus complementing her naval and military dominance with economic and commercial supremacy.
When a low-energy society comes in contact with a high-energy society, the advantage always lies with the latter. The Europeans not only achieved standards of living vastly higher than those of the rest of the world, but they did this while their population was growing at rates far surpassing those of other peoples. In fact, they doubled their share of total world population in the short span of three centuries. From one sixth in 1650, the people of European stock increased to almost one third of total world population by 1950.
Meanwhile much of the rest of the world did not even keep energy sources in balance with population growth. Per capita energy consumption actually diminished in large areas. It is this difference in energy consumption which has resulted in an ever-widening gap between the one-third minority who live in high-energy countries and the two-thirds majority who live in low-energy areas.
These so-called underdeveloped countries are now finding it far more difficult to catch up with the fortunate minority than it was for Europe to initiate transition from low-energy to high-energy consumption. For one thing, their ratio of land to people is much less favorable; for another, they have no outlet for surplus populations to ease the transition since all the empty spaces have already been taken over by people of European stock.
Almost all of today's low-energy countries have a population density so great that it perpetuates dependence on intensive manual agriculture which alone can yield barely enough food for their people. They do not have enough acreage, per capita, to justify using domestic animals or farm machinery, although better seeds, better soil management, and better hand tools could bring some improvement. A very large part of their working population must nevertheless remain on the land, and this limits the amount of surplus energy that can be produced. Most of these countries must choose between using this small energy surplus to raise their very low standard of living or postpone present rewards for the sake of future gain by investing the surplus in new industries. The choice is difficult because there is no guarantee that today's denial may not prove to have been in vain. This is so because of the rapidity with which public health measures have reduced mortality rates, resulting in population growth as high or even higher than that of the high-energy nations. Theirs is a bitter choice; it accounts for much of their anti-Western feeling and may well portend a prolonged period of world instability.
How closely energy consumption is related to standards of living may be illustrated by the example of India. Despite intelligent and sustained efforts made since independence, India's per capita income is still only 20 cents daily; her infant mortality is four times ours; and the life expectance of her people is less than one half that of the industrialized countries of the West. These are ultimate consequences of India's very low energy consumption: one-fourteenth of world average; one-eightieth of ours.
Ominous, too, is the fact that while world food production increased 9% in the six years from 1945-51, world population increased by 12%. Not only is world population increasing faster than world food production, but unfortunately, increases in food production tend to occur in the already well-fed, high-energy countries rather than in the undernourished, low-energy countries where food is most lacking.
I think no further elaboration is needed to demonstrate the significance of energy resources for our own future. Our civilization rests upon a technological base which requires enormous quantities of fossil fuels. What assurance do we then have that our energy needs will continue to be supplied by fossil fuels:
The answer is - in the long run - none. IN FACT! YOU KNOW!
. . PEAK OIL, PEAK GAS, PEAK URANIUM WILL ALL INSURE!
. . THE END OF . . "HIGH DENSITY ENERGY" . . IS OVER SOON!
"THANK GOD!" . . "It Is THE END!"
The earth is finite. Fossil fuels are not renewable. In this respect our energy base differs from that of all earlier civilizations. They could have maintained their energy supply by careful cultivation. We cannot. Fuel that has been burned is gone forever. Fuel is even more evanescent than metals. Metals, too, are non-renewable resources threatened with ultimate extinction, but something can be salvaged from scrap. Fuel leaves no scrap and there is nothing man can do to rebuild exhausted fossil fuel reserves. They were created by solar energy 500 million years ago and took eons to grow to their present volume.
In the face of the basic fact that fossil fuel reserves are finite, the exact length of time these reserves will last is important in only one respect: the longer they last, the more time do we have, to invent ways of living off renewable or substitute energy sources and to adjust our economy to the vast changes which we can expect from such a shift.
THE RICH SAY! "ALL . . FOR ME!" "BURN UP PLANET GREED!"
Fossil fuels resemble capital in the bank. A prudent and responsible parent will use his capital sparingly in order to pass on to his children as much as possible of his inheritance. A selfish and irresponsible parent will squander it in riotous living and care not one whit how his offspring will fare.
CROWN PRINCE BEN SALMAN OF SAUDI ARABIA STATED WHEN ASKED ABOUT RENEWABLE ENERGIES BY A REPORTER. WE HAVE SPENT BILLIONS TO STOP RENEWABLE ENERGIES, ESPECIALLY IN THE US, WHERE WE HAVE STOPED RENEWABLE ENERGY GROWTH.
SHE ASKED . . "ARE YOU CONCERNED ABOUT CLIMATE CHANGE?" . . HE STATED . . "WE HAVE A SAYING IN OUR COUNTRY! . . I GET ALL I CAN GET FROM THE WORLD! . . THE NEXT GENERATION, THE SAME." . . OR AS I SAY . .
"ALL . . FOR ME!" . . "FUCK . . THE REST!"
SHE SAID, WHAT ABOUT YOUR DAUGHTERS? HE SAID . .
. . "SAME PRINCIPAL APPLIES! . . ALL FOR ME! FUCK . . THE REST!"
Engineers whose work familiarizes them with energy statistics; far-seeing industrialists who know that energy is the principal factor which must enter into all planning for the future; responsible governments who realize that the well-being of their citizens and the political power of their countries depend on adequate energy supplies - all these have begun to be concerned about energy resources.
In this country, especially, many studies have been made in the last few years, seeking to discover accurate information on fossil-fuel reserves and foreseeable fuel needs.
Statistics involving the human factor are, of course, never exact. The size of usable reserves depends on the ability of engineers to improve the efficiency of fuel extraction and use. It also depends on discovery of new methods to obtain energy from inferior resources at costs which can be borne without unduly depressing the standard of living. Estimates of future needs, in turn, rely heavily on population figures which must always allow for a large element of uncertainty, particularly as man reaches a point where he is more and more able to control his own way of life.
Current estimates of fossil fuel reserves vary to an astonishing degree. In part this is because the results differ greatly if cost of extraction is disregarded or if in calculating how long reserves will last, population growth is not taken into consideration; or, equally important, not enough weight is given to increased fuel consumption required to process inferior or substitute metals. We are rapidly approaching the time when exhaustion of better grade metals will force us to turn to poorer grades requiring in most cases greater expenditure of energy per unit of metal.
But the most significant distinction between optimistic and pessimistic fuel reserve statistics is that the optimists generally speak of the immediate future - the next twenty- five years or so - while the pessimists think in terms of a century from now. A century or even two is a short span in the history of a great people. It seems sensible to me to take a long view, even if this involves facing unpleasant facts.
For it is an unpleasant fact that according to our best estimates, total fossil fuel reserves recoverable at not over twice today's unit cost, are likely to run out at some time between the years 2000 and 2050, if present standards of living and population growth rates are taken into account.
NOW THAT IS AN AMAZING FORECAST! IN 1957 THE FORECAST WAS TO RUN OUT BY 2000 TO 2050! AMAZINGLY ACCURATE! MY CURRENT FORECAST WAS 2030-2040! WITH FRACKING 2040-2050! CONSIDERING PUTIN'S WWIII, SUPPLY CHALLENGES, AND A FRAGMENTED WORLD! THE WORLD MAY MIMMIC "PEAK OIL" BY 2025-2030! BUT WHO CARES! "HOT STUFF" WILL BURN UP THE PLANET BY 2030!
"THE SECOND COMING" . . BY 2025 TO 2027! . . AMEN!
Oil and natural gas will disappear first, coal last. There will be coal left in the earth, of course. But it will be so difficult to mine that energy costs would rise to economically intolerable heights, so that it would then become necessary either to discover new energy sources or to lower standards of living drastically.
For more than one hundred years we have stoked ever growing numbers of machines with coal; for fifty years we have pumped gas and oil into our factories, cars, trucks, tractors, ships, planes, and homes without giving a thought to the future.
Occasionally the voice of a Cassandra has been raised only to be quickly silenced when a lucky discovery revised estimates of our oil reserves upward, or a new coalfield was found in some remote spot. Fewer such lucky discoveries can be expected in the future, especially in industrialized countries where extensive mapping of resources has been done.
Yet the popularizers of scientific news would have us believe that there is no cause for anxiety, that reserves will last thousands of years, and that before they run out science will have produced miracles. Our past history and security have given us the sentimental belief that the things we fear will never really happen - that everything turns out right in the end. But, prudent men will reject these tranquilizers and prefer to face the facts so that they can plan intelligently for the needs of their posterity.
Looking into the future, from the mid-20th Century, we cannot feel overly confident that present high standards of living will of a certainty continue through the next century and beyond. Fossil fuel costs will soon definitely begin to rise as the best and most accessible reserves are exhausted, and more effort will be required to obtain the same energy from remaining reserves. It is likely also that liquid fuel synthesized from coal will be more expensive.
Can we feel certain that when economically recoverable fossil fuels are gone science will have learned how to maintain a high standard of living on renewable energy sources?
I believe it would be wise to assume that the principal renewable fuel sources which we can expect to tap before fossil reserves run out will supply only 7 to 15% of future energy needs. The five most important of these renewable sources are wood fuel, farm wastes, wind, water power, and solar heat.
Wood fuel and farm wastes are dubious as substitutes because of growing food requirements to be anticipated. Land is more likely to be used for food production than for tree crops; farm wastes may be more urgently needed to fertilize the soil than to fuel machines.
Wind and water power can furnish only a very small percentage of our energy needs. Moreover, as with solar energy, expensive structures would be required, making use of land and metals which will also be in short supply. Nor would anything we know today justify putting too much reliance on solar energy though it will probably prove feasible for home heating in favorable localities and for cooking in hot countries which lack wood, such as India.
More promising is the outlook for nuclear fuels. These are not, properly speaking, renewable energy sources, at least not in the present state of technology, but their capacity to "breed" and the very high energy output from small quantities of fissionable material, as well as the fact that such materials are relatively abundant, do seem to put nuclear fuels into a separate category from exhaustible fossil fuels. The disposal of radioactive wastes from nuclear power plants is, however, a problem which must be solved before there can be any widespread use of nuclear power.
Another limit in the use of nuclear power is that we do not know today how to employ it otherwise than in large units to produce electricity or to supply heating. Because of its inherent characteristics, nuclear fuel cannot be used directly in small machines, such as cars, trucks, or tractors. It is doubtful that it could in the foreseeable future furnish economical fuel for civilian airplanes or ships, except very large ones. Rather than nuclear locomotives, it might prove advantageous to move trains by electricity produced in nuclear central stations. We are only at the beginning of nuclear technology, so it is difficult to predict what we may expect.
Transportation - the lifeblood of all technically advanced civilizations - seems to be assured, once we have borne the initial high cost of electrifying railroads and replacing buses with streetcars or interurban electric trains. But, unless science can perform the miracle of synthesizing automobile fuel from some energy source as yet unknown or unless trolley wires power electric automobiles on all streets and highways, it will be wise to face up to the possibility of the ultimate disappearance of automobiles, trucks, buses, and tractors. Before all the oil is gone and hydrogenation of coal for synthetic liquid fuels has come to an end, the cost of automotive fuel may have risen to a point where private cars will be too expensive to run and public transportation again becomes a profitable business.
Today the automobile is the most uneconomical user of energy. Its efficiency is 5% compared with 23% for the Diesel-electric railway. It is the most ravenous devourer of fossil fuels, accounting for over half of the total oil consumption in this country. And the oil we use in the United States in one year took nature about 14 million years to create.
SATAN'S EMPIRE OF OIL & WAR MAFIA DON IMPERIALISTS DESTROYED THE . . "ELECTRIC TROLLY CARS & INFRASTRUCTURE" IN THE EARLY 20TH CENTURY! . . TO INSURE THAT THE US WOULD BURN UP ALL OF THE OIL AS RAPIDLY AS POSSIBLE! BURNING UP PLANET EVIL GREED! BURNING UP THE EVIL BEASTS!
Curiously, the automobile, which is the greatest single cause of the rapid exhaustion of oil reserves, may eventually be the first fuel consumer to suffer. Reduction in automotive use would necessitate an extraordinarily costly reorganization of the pattern of living in industrialized nations, particularly in the United States. It would seem prudent to bear this in mind in future planning of cities and industrial locations.
Our present known reserves of fissionable materials are many times as large as our net economically recoverable reserves of coal. [SEE MY COMMENTS ON NUCLEAR ABOVE, AND READ "PEAK URANIUM" ON WIKI! NOT TO MENTION ABRUPT CLIMATE CHANGE I BELIEVE WILL BURN UP PLANET EVIL GREED BY 2030-2040!] A point will be reached before this century is over when fossil fuel costs will have risen high enough to make nuclear fuels economically competitive. Before that time comes we shall have to make great efforts to raise our entire body of engineering and scientific knowledge to a higher plateau. We must also induce many more young Americans to become metallurgical and nuclear engineers. Else we shall not have the knowledge or the people to build and run the nuclear power plants which ultimately may have to furnish the major part of our energy needs.
If we start to plan now, we may be able to achieve the requisite level of scientific and engineering knowledge before our fossil fuel reserves give out, but the margin of safety is not large. This is also based on the assumption that atomic war can be avoided and that population growth will not exceed that now calculated by demographic experts.
War, of course, cancels all man's expectations. Even growing world tension just short of war could have far-reaching effects. In this country it might, on the one hand, lead to greater conservation of domestic fuels, to increased oil imports, and to an acceleration in scientific research which might turn up unexpected new energy sources. On the other hand, the resulting armaments race would deplete metal reserves more rapidly, hastening the day when inferior metals must be utilized with consequent greater expenditure of energy. Underdeveloped nations with fossil fuel deposits might be coerced into withholding them from the free world or may themselves decide to retain them for their own future use. The effect on Europe, which depends on coal and oil imports, would be disastrous and we would have to share our own supplies or lose our allies.
Barring atomic war or unexpected changes in the population curve, we can count on an increase in world population from two and one half billion today to four billion in the year 2000; six to eight billion by 2050. [7.9 BILLION NOW 2022! OOOPS!]
The United States is expected to quadruple its population during the 20th Century ¬ from 75 million in 1900 to 300 million in 2000 - and to reach at least 375 million in 2050. [US POPULATION IS 333 MILLION, VERY CLOSE FORECAST!] This would almost exactly equal India's present population which she supports on just a little under half of our land area.
It is an awesome thing to contemplate a graph of world population growth from prehistoric times - tens of thousands of years ago - to the day after tomorrow - let us say the year 2000 A.D. If we visualize the population curve as a road which starts at sea level and rises in proportion as world population increases, we should see it stretching endlessly, almost level, for 99% of the time that man has inhabited the earth. In 6000 B.C., when recorded history begins, the road is running at a height of about 70 feet above sea level, which corresponds to a population of 10 million. Seven thousand years later - in 1000 A.D. - the road has reached an elevation of 1,600 feet; the gradation now becomes steeper, and 600 years later the road is 2,900 feet high. During the short span of the next 400 years – from 1600 to 2000 - it suddenly turns sharply upward at an almost perpendicular inclination and goes straight up to an elevation of 29,000 feet - the height of Mt. Everest, the world's tallest mountain.
In the 8,000 years from the beginning of history to the year 2000 A.D. world population will have grown from 10 million to 4 billion, with 90% of that growth taking place during the last 5% of that period, in 400 years. It took the first 3,000 years of recorded history to accomplish the first doubling of population, 100 years for the last doubling, but the next doubling will require only 50 years. Calculations give us the astonishing estimate that one out of every 20 human beings born into this world is alive today.
The rapidity of population growth has not given us enough time to readjust our thinking. Not much more than a century ago our country – the very spot on which I now stand was a wilderness in which a pioneer could find complete freedom from men and from government. If things became too crowded - if he saw his neighbor's chimney smoke - he could, and often did, pack up and move west. We began life in 1776 as a nation of less than four million people - spread over a vast continent - with seemingly inexhaustible riches of nature all about.
We conserved what was scarce - human labor - and squandered what seemed abundant - natural resources - and we are still doing the same today.
Much of the wilderness which nurtured what is most dynamic in the American character has now been buried under cities, factories and suburban developments where each picture window looks out on nothing more inspiring than the neighbor's back yard with the smoke of his fire in the wire basket clearly visible.
Life in crowded communities cannot be the same as life on the frontier. We are no longer free, as was the pioneer - to work for our own immediate needs regardless of the future. We are no longer as independent of men and of government as were Americans two or three generations ago. An ever larger share of what we earn must go to solve problems caused by crowded living - bigger governments; bigger city, state, and federal budgets to pay for more public services. Merely to supply us with enough water and to carry away our waste products becomes more difficult and expansive daily. More laws and law enforcement agencies are needed to regulate human relations in urban industrial communities and on crowded highways than in the America of Thomas Jefferson.
Certainly no one likes taxes, but we must become reconciled to larger taxes in the larger America of tomorrow.
I suggest that this is a good time to think soberly about our responsibilities to our descendents - those who will ring out the Fossil Fuel Age. Our greatest responsibility, as parents and as citizens, is to give America's youngsters the best possible education. We need the best teachers and enough of them to prepare our young people for a future immeasurably more complex than the present, and calling for ever larger numbers of competent and highly trained men and women.
This means that we must not delay building more schools, colleges, and playgrounds. It means that we must reconcile ourselves to continuing higher taxes to build up and maintain at decent salaries a greatly enlarged corps of much better trained teachers, even at the cost of denying ourselves such momentary pleasures as buying a bigger new car, or a TV set, or household gadget. We should find - I believe - that these small self-denials would be far more than offset by the benefits they would buy for tomorrow's America. We might even - if we wanted - give a break to these youngsters by cutting fuel and metal consumption a little here and there so as to provide a safer margin for the necessary adjustments which eventually must be made in a world without fossil fuels.
One final thought I should like to leave with you. High-energy consumption has always been a prerequisite of political power. The tendency is for political power to be concentrated in an ever-smaller number of countries. Ultimately, the nation which control - the largest energy resources will become dominant. If we give thought to the problem of energy resources, if we act wisely and in time to conserve what we have and prepare well for necessary future changes, we shall insure this dominant position for our own country.
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~ Editorial Notes ~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
Contributor Rick Lakin writes:
Admiral Rickover was considered the Father of the Nuclear Submarine. As an employee of the US Atomic Energy Commission, later Department of Energy, he had great influence on the development of our country's civilian Nuclear Power Generation Industry.
This speech, given almost 50 years ago, sheds an important light on our current discussion about the future of energy in our country. In the 1970s, Admiral Rickover worked closely with President Jimmy Carter on energy issues. I served on Navy Nuclear Submarines as a Nuclear Reactor Operator for 8 years.
I would like to give special thanks to Theodore Rockwell, author of The Rickover Effect: How One Man Made a Difference for searching his files and sending me a copy of this speech so that I could convert it for digital publication. Mr. Rockwell has a more recent book, Creating the New World: Stories & Images from the Dawn of the Atomic Age. Both are available on amazon.com.
Biography of Hyman G. Rickover from Wikipedia:
Many thanks to Rick Lakin and Theodore Rockwell who have made this historic document available. Rickover's speech was covered in an excellent 1957 article in the Christian Science Monitor that EB just posted: Admiral Rickover: The future of fossil fuels.
This document is also posted at http://www.hilltoplancers.org/photos/rickover0557.pdf.
Article found at :
Original article :
The Purpose of Life Pray "Help Me To Love Others The Way YOU Love Me!" This IS ALL YOU NEED to Become One With God! I LOVE YOU SOO MUCH! "JC!" THE GOD OF LOVE!
PRACTICE FOR HEAVEN!
"LIVE LIKE THE PLANET IS DYING!" It Is THE END!
LOVE MORE, AND LOVE MORE PEOPLE! TRY!
FIND A CAUSE! GIFT AS MUCH AS YOU CAN! TO "THOSE IN NEED!"
GIFT MOST OF YOUR WEALTH TO GOD! TO "THOSE IN NEED!" IF YOUR EVIL GREED HAS ENGULFED YOUR SOUL! IF YOU ARE VERY RICH!
SUPPORT "AS IT IS IN HEAVEN, SO SHOULD IT BE ON EARTH!" SUSTAINABLE, HUMANE AND EGALITARIAN! "THE SHE NORDIC MODEL!" BERNIE/AOC/ THE SQUAD! AND . .
"BECOME ONE!" REALLY OPEN YOUR LIFE TO GOD'S LOVE! GOD WANTS TO BE YOUR BFF! LET GOD GUIDE AND FULFILL YOU! LOVE GOD WITH ALL OF YOUR PASSION! EVERY DAY!
IF YOU DON'T BELIEVE IN GOD! BE A "GOOD HUMANIST!" AND . .
"I WILL SEE YOU IN HEAVEN SOON!" JAZZIE!
"JAZZIE!" . . "Little Jc!"
GOD’S . . JC’S . . PROGRESSIVE NEWS, SCIENCE & TRUE CHRISTIANITY! . .
. . “THE LIBERATION THEOLOGY OF JESUS CHRIST!” . . “JC!”. .
. . “ALL TRUTH!” . .
. . “NO LIES!”
. . TO HELP PREPARE . .
. . “YOUR SOUL!” AS . .
. . “It Is THE END!” . . . .
. . “SAVE YOUR SOUL!” .
. . “BECOME ONE!” NOW!
PLUS . . . .
. . MORE PROGRESSIVE NEWS, INSIGHTS AND ANALYSIS . . IN 1 POST . .THAN CNN IN A YEAR!
CHRIST STATED: I HAD TO COME TO TELL "YOU" "MY FATHER'S WILL!" WHICH MY FATHER HAS UPDATED TO TODAY! ON "GOD'S SITE!" SOON! "YOU" WILL BE JUDGED! BY HOW "YOU" "DO MY FATHER'S WILL!" "TAKE CARE OF THOSE IN NEED!" NOT "YOUR EVIL GREED!" OR "FRY BABY FRY!" IN THE IMPACTS OF "YOUR EVIL GREED!" . . VERY SOON!
"The Spirit of the Lord is upon me; he has anointed me to tell the good news to the poor. He has sent me to announce release to the prisoners and recovery of sight to the blind, to set oppressed people free, and that the time of the Lord ’s favor has come.” Luke 4:18-19
Christ's Message is . .
Good News for The Poor Imprisoned Blind and for The Oppressed! It is . . "The Last Warning" for . . THE EVIL RICH and The Oppressors! The EVIL Republicans Right Dems Right Independents and Right Anti-Christians! Support The Nordic Model Now! Gift Your Evil Income & Wealth! Or Fry in Hell You caused!
"Depart From ME!" "Ye" "That Have Worked" . . "The Most Evil Iniquity of Wealth, Income & Justice! Of ALL TIME!"
"To THE REST!" . . Do what Tori sings so amazingly in the first video. Pray "Help Me To Love Others The Way YOU LOVE ME!" Support
"As it is IN HEAVEN!" Sustainable Humane and Egalitarian . . "The Nordic Model!" Bernie / AOC / The Squad! Now! Gift as much as you can!
Little did I know over the past 20 plus years of going to Maui, our favorite spot, and laughing at the sign below, that "Christ" would select me to "prepare the way!" Truly "Jesus Is Coming Soon!"
By 2025-2030! Soon after "The ARCTIC is Ice Free!" The Spiral below goes to Zero! Prepare your Souls! . . NOW!
THESIS SUMMARIES & Key Links SideBar Below
THE FINAL TESTAMENT OF JESUS CHRIST! “THE LOGICAL GOD OF LOVE!”
"MY HIS STORY"
My journey with "JC!" My BFF! The Only Reason! "Become One!" NOW! In process but most is here or on my "Jazzie" page.
"JAZZIE" . . "LITTLE Jc"
My Trans story written in spring 2016. "His Site" was launched in 8/2015. Amazing how little has changed! Need to join Gender Society to read bios! The primary NEW INFO. Methane Release has skyrocketed! Which I have documented here! Hence, "It Is THE END" by 2030! Not by 2100!
CLICK HERE FOR THE PDF FILE! . . OF . . "JAZZIE!" . . "LITTLE Jc!" VISIT GENDERSOCIETY!
PROVING . . CHRIST'S MOST PROFOUND PROPHECY! . . BY 2022 TO 2027! PLEASE READ
"CHRIST'S MOST PROFOUND PROPHECY!" WHEN "THE ARCTIC IS ICE FREE!" "STRONG EL NINO COLLAPSE OF THE AMOC & THE 2ND COMING!" "BECOME ONE II!" TRANS HELL! PASSIONATELY LOVE GOD! NOT MONEY! "LOVE OTHERS WITH GOD'S LOVE!" GIVE YOUR WEALTH & LIFE TO GOD!
WELCOME TO "THE END OF THE WORLD!" "THANK GOD!" "It Is THE END!" PUTIN STARTS WWIII! 1 "THE FINAL JUDGEMENT" BY 2027! DURING "THE SECOND COMING!" MOST BLESSED - "NORDIC MODEL SUPPORTERS!" THE MOST DAMNED "THE EVIL RICH & RIGHT WING ANTI-CHRISTIANS!"
JOE DO "THE SUMMIT TO SAVE OUR SPECIES!" AND "ONE LOVE!" NOW!
PREPARE YOUR SOULS - NOW! BECOME "ONE" WITH "THE ONE!" NOW! THE END IS MUCH CLOSER THAN YOU THINK!
WHEN I SPEAK - "AS MY FATHER" - I SPEAK - "FOR MY FATHER!" BECOME ONE! - NOW! HIS CHANNEL! LOVE U!
MY PRIMARY ROLE IS AS MY CLOSEST SPIRITUAL BROTHER, JOHN THE BAPTIST, TO PREPARE THE WAY! LOVE U!
LOVE GOD WITH ALL OF YOUR HEART! DEVOUT YOUR SOUL LIFE & WEALTH TO - “THE GOD OF LOVE!” NOW! NOW!
TRY TO LOVE ALL OTHERS WITH GOD’S LOVE! BE OF PEACE! FORGIVE THE WAY YOU WANT TO BE FORGIVEN!
PRAY FOR YOUR FORGIVENESS FOR CHOOSING MONEY OVER GOD! INIQUITY OVER EQUITY! FOR NOT SUPPORTING THE ONLY OBVIOUS EGALITARIAN SOCIETIES OF GOD’S LOVE - HELPING “THOSE IN NEED!”
THE NORDIC MODEL COUNTRIES! FOR SUPPORTING “THE GREED OF THE FEW!” VERSUS HELPING “THOSE IN NEED!” FOR - NOT BECOMING “ONE WITH - THE ONE!” GOD’S LOVE!
King James Version
21 Not every one that saith unto me, Lord, Lord, shall enter into the kingdom of heaven; but he that doeth the will of my Father which is in heaven.
FATHER’S WILL IS TO HAVE SUSTAINABLE HUMANE AND EGALITARIAN SOCIETIES/MARKETS!
”THE NORDIC MODEL!” AS IT IS IN HEAVEN IT SHOULD BE ON EARTH!
22 Many will say to me in that day, Lord, Lord, have we not prophesied in thy name? and in thy name have cast out devils? and in thy name done many wonderful works?
23 And then will I profess unto them, I never knew you: depart from me, ye that work iniquity.
RIGGED! KOCHS TAKE OVER COVID & HEALTHCARE! "ICE FREE ARCTIC!" UNLEASHES "HOT STUFF" "GIGATONS OF METHANE!" CAUSED BY STRONG EL NINO EARTHQUAKES SUPER STORMS AMOC COLLAPSE REDUCED ALBEDO BY 2023-2027! ADD "LATENT HEAT OF FUSION!" = "MELTING OF ANTARCTICA!"
JOE DO "THE SUMMIT TO SAVE OUR SPECIES!" AND "ONE LOVE!" OR FRY WHEN YOU DIE! METHANE EXPLODES! IPCC ISSUES NO METHANE NON-SCIENCE! ARCTIC ICE BY GEOENGINEERING!? AMOC COLLAPSE EXPLODES GULF TEMPS! SUPER STORMS DESTROY GULF BY 25! "It Is THE END!" 2030!
REMEMBERING - CHENEY BUSH STOLE B-TRILLIONS DOING 9/11! A NEWS WOMAN CALLED BLD 7 DOWN LIVE ON TV! ROCKEFELLER TOLD RUSSO 9/11 WOULD HAPPEN 11 MONTHS BEFORE AND ROCKEFELLER TOLD RUSSO "SATAN'S MAFIA GLOBAL DEPOPULATION AND POLICE STATE AGENDA!" NO VACCINES FOR POOR COUNTRIES IS SATAN'S MAFIA DEPOPULATION AGENDA! It Is THE END! ENJOY HELL!
"THANK GOD!" . . "It Is THE END!" . OF . "RUTHLESS RULE BY THE EVIL RICH!" THEIR OPERATORS AND ANTI-CHRISTIAN WHORES! . . OMG! "THE ARCTIC OCEAN" IS . . "ON FIRE!" . . "HOT STUFF!" WILL ARISE ON "TRUMPET COCAINE!" SOON!
THE FINAL WARNING TO "SATAN'S STATES OF EVIL GREED!" "SUPPORT THE NORDIC MODEL" & "GIVE TO THOSE IN NEED!" THE NORDIC THEORY OF LOVE - VS - SATAN’S EMPIRE OF EVIL GREED’S THEORY OF “ALL FOR ME!” “FUCK YOU-ISM!” OR "FRY BABY FRY!" SOON!
STAND AGAINST THE PURE EVIL INIQUITY OF WEALTH INCOME & JUSTICE IN THE US & GLOBALLY!
SEEK - NOT - TO STORE UP WEALTH ON EARTH! BUT IN HEAVEN!
RARELY WILL A RICH PERSON ENTER HEAVEN UNLESS THEY GIVE AWAY THEIR INSANE INCOME (BAGS OF HARVEST) AND INSANE WEALTH (HUMPS ON THEIR BACKS) TO “THOSE IN NEED!” FOR THE LOVE OF GOD! WILL THEY FIT THROUGH THE EYE OF THE NEEDLE! HEAVEN!
WORTH OVER $5 MILLION? GIFT EXCESS OVER $5 MILLION IN ASSETS AND A $5 MILLION HOUSE PER FAMILY BY 2025! IS YOUR NET WORTH FROM $1 TO $5 MILLION - GIFT 10% OF TOTAL INCOME! UNDER $1 MILLION - WHAT YOU CAN! T0 - “THOSE IN NEED!” STRETCH! SHOW GOD HOW MUCH YOU LOVE GOD! BY SHOWING YOUR LOVE FOR - THOSE IN NEED! YOUR LOVE AND HELP FOR - “THOSE IN NEED” - MAY - “SAVE YOUR SOUL!”
SAVE A CHILD IN NEED! GIVE THAT CHILD A GOD / GOOD CENTERED HOME AND UPBRINGING! THE CHILD’S LOVE WILL SAVE YOUR SOUL! DON’T GET TOO MANY CHILDREN! ONE IS GOD!
IT IS SIMPLY WHAT - “A GOOD SOUL” - WORTHY OF ETERNITY - ONE IN GOD’S LOVE WOULD DO!
BY 2023-2027 IT WILL BE - MAD MAX! RAISE YOUR SPIRITS UP TO GOD! “ASCENSION THURSDAY 2025!” OR SPIRITUALLY MEANINGFUL DAY TO YOU! A NICE SUNSET!
GET YOUR SUCK BAGS - NOW! PREPARE YOUR SOUL! PREPARE YOUR FAMILIES! LOVE GOD!
GIVE TO & HELP THOSE IN NEED! SUPPORT “THE NORDIC MODEL!” NOW! . . NOW!
NARROW IS THE ENTRANCE TO HEAVEN! THE NORDIC MODEL SUPPORTERS! WIDE IS THE GATE TO HELL! THOSE NOT SUPPORTING SUSTAINABLE HUMANE AND EGALITARIAN!
MY MAIN GOAL! . .
. . “TO SAVE YOU!”
LET JESUS, SARAYU AND MAMMA - “THE LOGICAL GOD OF LOVE!” GUIDE YOU HOME! NOW!
“GET YOUR SUCK BAGS” NOW! TIME TO “RAISE OUR SPIRITS UP TO GOD!” BY “ASCENSION THURSDAY 2023” AT THE LATEST!
MY MAJOR SCIENTIFIC ARGUMENTS: WITH ONLY A 3-5C RISE IN GLOBAL TEMPS GMAT, ABOVE PRE-INDUSTRIAL TEMPS, 2-3 ABOVE TODAY, CORE SAMPLES BY ANDRILL IN ANTARCTICA
PROVED THAT IT CAUSED 60 FEET PLUS SEA LEVEL RISE. ANTARCTICA MELTED 60 TIMES AT THESE TEMPS, WEST AND EAST. PER SAM CARANA 2 C WAS HIT FEB 2020. AN ADDITIONAL 1-3C WILL BE HIT BY 2023-2027!
“The last time the Earth experienced a comparable concentration of CO₂ was 3-5 million years ago, when the temperature was 2-3°C warmer and sea level was 10-20 meters (30’ TO 60’) higher than now. But there weren’t 7.7 billion inhabitants,” said WMO Secretary-General Professor Petteri Taalas.
30’-60’ SEA LEVEL RISE BLOWS UP MOST OF THE 440 NUCLEAR REACTORS!
DUE TO “THE REDUCTION IN GLOBAL DIMMING” - CAUSED BY DR DEATH’S KILLER COVID! CAUSING A COLLAPSE IN GLOBAL ECONOMIES!
“HOT STUFF” “THE CLATHRATE GUN FIRING ON TRUMPET COCAINE” WILL HAPPEN BY 2025! DUE TO “COMPLETELY ICE FREE ARCTIC” BY 9/2023-9/2027!
“MASSIVE RELEASES OF SIBERIAN METHANE” WILL CAUSE 2-3C RISE IN GMAT BY 2025-27! MELTING ANTARCTICA WEST & EAST RAPIDLY!
CAUSING 60’ SEA LEVEL RISE BY 2025-2030! THIS DESTROYS MOST OF THE 440 NUCLEAR REACTORS. GAME OVER “It Is THE END!”
HENCE MY PROPOSAL FOR 350-400’ PYRAMID STRUCTURES AROUND NUCLEAR REACTORS, SINCE WATCHING THE ANDRILL VIDEO 2017.
ALONG WITH “SIBERIAN METHANE CAPS” TO SEQUESTER METHANE! STORING IT IN TANKS!
“THE MONSTER SUPER STORMS” AND STORM SURGE MAY DESTROY NUCLEAR REACTORS, SOONER THAN SEA LEVEL RISE.
BY 2025 THE GULF & FLORIDA WILL BE DESTROYED BY “THE MONSTER SUPER STORMS” - EXIT NOW!
THIS IS “HERD GENOCIDE“ - NOT - “HERD IMMUNITY!“ THIS IS THE GLOBAL DEPOPULATION AND POLICE STATE AGENDA! “It Is THE END!” BY 2030-2040!
“HERD GENOCIDE!” NOT “HERD IMMUNITY!” PART II. Americans Are Dying At Rates Far Higher Than Other Countries! 8 MILLION MORE POOR!
“HERD GENOCIDE III” COVID LONG-HAULERS! ACCELERATES “GLOBAL DIMMING!” CAUSING “ICE FREE ARCTIC!” 9/2022 UNLEASHING “HOT STUFF!” MELTING ANTARCTICA! GMAT 2-3C RISE = 60’ SEA LEVEL RISE 2025-30! BLOWING UP 440 NUCLEAR REACTORS! “THE END!”
MY PRAYER FOR - “THE REST” - SUPPORTING - “THE EVIL RICH!”
CHRIST’S COMMANDS US TO - COMMAND THE RICH TO “TAKE CARE OF THOSE IN NEED!” TO ENTER HEAVEN! MY INSPIRATIONS OF WHAT YOU MUST DO IN TODAY’S TERMS - TO ENTER GOD’S HEAVEN!
MOVE TO - CANADA - NOW! IF YOU CAN! BANF TO LAKE SUPERIOR UP TO HUDSON BAY, EAST. NORDIC COUNTRIES. NEW ZEALAND IF YOU CAN AFFORD TO. LAKE TAHOE, LAKE CHAMPLAIN, GREAT LAKES EAST TO COAST IN US!
MUCH OF MY WORK IS IN ALL CAPITALS - most of others works are in non-caps. Sources are linked - blue text. POSTS
TO RAISE YOUR SPIRIT UP TO GOD HUMANELY:
DUE TO - “THE LATENT HEAT EFFECT!” - UNLEASHING - “HOT STUFF!” I COMPARE MY FORECAST FOR EXTINCTION TO SAM’S AND GUYS!!” CAUSING GMAT TO RISE BY 18 C / 32.4 F BY 2026 ACCORDING TO SAM CARANA!
LOTS OF VIDEOS - TAKES TIME TO LOAD!
New Topic /Videos Each Post Plus Key Videos
ALL CREDIT FOR TRUTH IS TO - "THE ONE" - THE SUNSHINE BAND AND AUTHORS NOTED. MY CREDIT IS FOR ANY MISTAKES! SORRY!
THE NORDIC MODEL & The Final Judgement: Take Care of "Those in Need!" Or Fry in Hell! Christ IS "The First Great SOCIALIST!" Last Warning! SUPPORT THE NORDIC MODEL or FRY Baby FRY! WHEN YOU DIE, BABY, DIE! SOON!
GLOBAL POLICIES TO
SAVE THE SPECIES:
ONE LOVE CLIMATE REFUGEES & PRISON COMMUNITIES
ENCASE NUCLEAR REACTORS - ENCASE POWER POLES - CAP SIBERIAN AND ARCTIC METHANE - TRANSITION TO PRIMARILY SOLAR AND WIND - USING THE SAVE THE SPECIES - NON-DEBT BASED CURRENCY! EFFECTIVELY A NORDIC MODEL / RESOURCE BASED GLOBAL RENEWABLE ENERGY ECONOMY! - NOW!
ALL POSTS (clickie)
"THE LOGIC OF THE GOD OF LOVE!" MEDICARE FOR ALL - CHRISTIAN! CAPITALISM - EVIL!
DO YOU CHOOSE - MONEY OR GOD!
"MY HIS STORY"
ANTARCTICA MELTING RAPIDLY! ANDRILL
2016 VIDEO - 60-75 FOOT SEA LEVEL RISE WITH 400 PPM CARBON, SAME AS TODAY, AND JUST SLIGHTLY HIGHER TEMPS THAN TODAY!
"LIVING GIVING NETWORKS:" THE THEISTIC HUMANISTIC MODEL FOR ACHIEVING -"ONENESS" - WITH - "GOD'S LAW" - TO TAKE CARE OF - "THOSE IN NEED!" TO ACHIEVE "THE SHE MATRIARCAL NORDIC MODEL!" (not a business solicitation)
"BECOMING ONE" CORONAVIRUS HELL ON EARTH! THEN - "HOT STUFF"- IS UNLEASHED!
EXIT - THE GULF & FLORIDA - NOW! “THE MONSTER SUPER STORMS” WILL DESTROY THEM . .
. . BY 2025! OMG!
"GET YOUR SUCK BAGS" NOW! "THE HAMMER AND THE DANCE!" THE MOST HORRIFIC CASE. . . . . "It Is THE END!"
WORLD'S ONLY MAJOR TERRORISTS GROUP!
THE EVIL RIGHT WING!
"AS IT IS IN HEAVEN - SO SHOULD IT BE ON EARTH!" SUPPORT THE ONLY CHRIST LIKE SOCIETY OR FRY IN THE HELL YOU SUPPORT!
RIGGED - The GREAT SIBERIAN METHANE COVER UP!
CAN "THEY" FIX IT? STOP HELL ON EARTH?
"HOT STUFF LIVES?"
The Clathrate Gun Fired
FOR FULL SCREEN: Login to Youtube FIRST, then Open My Site, Then Click on Video you Want Full Screen. Now Go To Youtube, Switch Screens, Click on History, the First Is the Video You Clicked On - On My Site! If NOT close All, Repeat Process.
MUST READ and WATCH
The Nordic Theory of Everything / Love, and Anu Partanen’s writings
Viking Economics: How the Scandinavians Got It Right - And How We Can, Too; The Secrets of The Nordic Model, by the same author, and The Nordic Perspective!
US CORPORATE STATE SOCIALISM, Fascist Monopolistic, Homo and Transphobe, Racist, Kleptocratic / Thieves, Oil War Imperialist Focused, "ALL for THE RICH" - - "RAPE THE REST!" Especially Destroy the Lives of the Truly Good People Who Stand against THE EVIL GREED of THE FEW, The Sunshine Band. UNTIL The Horrific Demise of ALL God's Children, God's Species and Wonder Filled World for THE EVIL GREED OF THE FEW . . . .
. . . . is EVIL!
THE NORDIC MODEL: Libertarian Democratic Market Socialism: Denmark, Finland, Norway, Sweden, are Sustainable, Humane
and Egalitarian (Think - SHE - The Matriarcal Nordic Model). . .
. . . .it is GOOD!
Vote for THE MATRIARCAL NORDIC MODEL - NOW!
Bernie Sanders & Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez - 2020! VOTE!
MY HEROS OF "THE MATRIARCAL NORDIC MODEL!" BELOW
BERNIE SANDERS AND ALEXANDRIA CORTEZ 2020! IF NOT, JILL STEIN AND ABBY MARTIN - GREEN PARTY - 2020!
"God's Girls!" "GG's Community," God's Gifted, think "The Beatitudes," is the Amazing Arts Colony We Will Be playing, singing, praising, loving, adoring God at Soon! Think billions of souls coming to see you, millions daily! Loving U!
MY HEROS, ABOVE:
LESTER BROWN, "WORLD ON THE EDGE," "PLAN B 4.0," EARTH-POLICY.ORG
DR. GUY MCPHERSON, FATHER OF "ABRUPT CLIMATE CHANGE"
DR. JORGEN RANDERS, FATHER OF "THE LIMITS TO GROWTH!" AND, "2052: A Global Forecast for the next 40 Years!"
MICHAEL MOORE - DOCUMENTARIAN - FOR - "JC AND THE SUNSHINE BAND!" EXCEPTIONAL DOCUMENTARIES!
RICK STEVES - THE NORDIC MODEL - THE GOOD LIFE!
EVIL TRUMP! OF "THANK GOD!" - -
"It Is THE END!"
"THE SIBERIAN METHANE MONSTER!"
"House of Trump, House of Putin: The Untold Story of Donald Trump and the Russian Mafia"
“Damning in its accumulation of detail, terrifying in its depiction of the pure evil of those Trump chose to do business with.”--The Spectator (UK)
Watch "THE SIBERIAN METHANE MONSTER" - ABOVE - BURN UP and SUPER STORMS DESTROY Planet EVIL GREED! DAILY! OH BOY, WHAT COULD BE MORE EXCITING THAN THAT!? OK, Her Name is . . . . . . . "HOT STUFF!"
"The Limits to Growth: A Final Warning" tells you about the authors work since the early seventies, my work since 1980, and the stage of the "science of overpopulation analysis." Dr. Jorgen Randers, "2052: A Global Forecast for the Next Forty Years," and Lester Brown, "World on The Edge," have portended the fate of the world, due to overpopulation since the seventies! However limited I see their understanding of "abrupt climate change."